The High Definition Downloads War - Who Will Win?

[admin]

In this new era of high definition TV and high speed Internet, it's almost ludicrous to think that in the coming years people will be content to wait for a physical disc to show up in the mail. Still, there are some challenges to the world of HD downloads and a lot needs to happen in order to meet those challenges. We took some time to outline what we think it will take to bring HD downloads to the living room.

Discuss "The High Definition Downloads War - Who Will Win?" here. Read the article.

 

[Dezoris]

I seem to always be piping in on this download discussion.

The Xbox and PS3 are the best bets for set top download services.
It comes down to numbers and market penetration. Most all xbox and Ps3 owners are hooked up to a network and are online. (xbox owners pay 3 times. One for ISP another for xbox live and another to download things.)

If the rumors are true of plugins to support netflix streaming on these consoles you will have a revolution.

The fear is everyone wants a piece of the money instead of standardizing.

Now onto the Microsoft bashing.

90% of the Xbox's in homes that still work don't have HDMI.
The exclusion of this feature much like the exclusion of HDDVD is yet another example of Microsoft's poor long term outlook.

HD audio won't be a priority there.
HD streaming won't happen in this country either in the next 5 years.

Why do we need another appliance or set top box?

The PS3 and Xbox are the closest to those and have much more potential. PS3 being a better long term choice given it's customer upgradeable hard disk and host of upgrade abilities.

 

[autoboy]

Who will win? The movie studios. Easily accessible pay per use movies will net studios huge profits because it makes the content as easy as cableTV.

It matters little what device plays the content back. They are a dime a dozen and will only get cheaper. Netflix is even opening up their API to other devices like Netgear's HD player and SageTV's HD extender. Each service will have it's pluses and minuses on video quality, audio quality, download speed, etc, but it will come down to whichever box you have in your home already. If you have a PS3, you will likely use Sony's service. If you have a Xbox, you will use Microsoft's service. Some players may even be able to play content from multiple providers. As long as the movie studios get their act together and decide on some firm rules for download, and distribute that to everyone, you will find that anyone can get in the market. I would even venture to guess that niche players will even get in on the service to offer higher picture quality and audio than the mainstream players.

 

[Dezoris]

Who will win? The movie studios. Easily accessible pay per use movies will net studios huge profits because it makes the content as easy as cableTV.

It matters little what device plays the content back. They are a dime a dozen and will only get cheaper. Netflix is even opening up their API to other devices like Netgear's HD player and SageTV's HD extender. Each service will have it's pluses and minuses on video quality, audio quality, download speed, etc, but it will come down to whichever box you have in your home already. If you have a PS3, you will likely use Sony's service. If you have a Xbox, you will use Microsoft's service. Some players may even be able to play content from multiple providers. As long as the movie studios get their act together and decide on some firm rules for download, and distribute that to everyone, you will find that anyone can get in the market. I would even venture to guess that niche players will even get in on the service to offer higher picture quality and audio than the mainstream players.

I see what you are saying but people don't want more appliances, namely for home entertainment. Most consumers will have a TV and a DVD player and cable/dish box because they have to. Its an extremely hard sell to add a device for people who don't have network capability in their family area.

The PS3 and Xflop are in millions of homes, most all networked. Not only networked but wireless capable.

All these download services be it apple, netflix or blockbuster should be spending their time signing contracts with the consoles first to get these services mainstream.

Anyone who buys a PS3 or Xflop should turn it on and have an icon or window for movie downloads tied into all of these services.

 

[autoboy]

I NEVER said you needed more boxes. You misunderstand. Any stupid *** box can do this. Dlink, Netgear, SageTV, Linksys, Xbox, Playstation, Tivo, whatever should be able to play h.264. It is not hard anymore because the chips are out there that make it the same as playing a DVD. There is no reason that you couldn't build a box with a Cable Card, DVD player, and movie streaming, getting rid of all those boxes in your house.

I said it does not what the service is because there is no more limit to physical discs you have to distribute in stores so there will be no winner in the format wars because the format does not really exist. There is NO FORMAT. Buyers will pick the service that matches what they already have in their house. If they have a Tivo, they can use Amazon Unbox. If they have a PS3 they can use Sony's movie store. If they have a 360 they can use Microsoft's service. If they have a cable box they can use the cable service for OnDemand. It is no longer a format, it is a service and the format it comes in is irrelevant. All these services can survive because they are not competing for floor space on a shelf at best buy. They are distributed over the internet, which will allow unlimited players in the market as long as the studios cooperate and offer their movies to everyone.

The biggest problem right now is that the movies available are all different. If all the movies are available to everyone then nobody really needs to win the war because it will lead to the ultimate choice. If you want cheap movies, go to Netflix, if you care about quality, try out 1080pMoviesRus. Whatever. Eventually, the box it runs on should not matter because the internet tubes offer up anything you want.

 

[stratman]

there will be no winner in the format wars because the format does not really exist. There is NO FORMAT.

That's right the winners are the studios (content owners), the end of physical media puts us (consumers) at the mercy of the content supplier, you'll never own anything, anytime you want to watch something you'll have to pay for it, over and over. Physical media is the thin line between us and them, give it away and kiss your control good bye, then you'll get extra DRM as pirates move in and hack away (always happens) creating the need for more security and creating hardware compatibility chaos, you'll get rising prices, if a studio decides not to catalog an "unpopular" movie (that happens to be your favorite) you're out of luck. The abolishment of physical media is where the studios want to be, think about it, you're renting THEIR movie. We all know CDs are getting there. Yet the lemming keep screaming how great progress is while falling off the cliff.

 

[autoboy]

Dude, if there is a market, it will get filled. You will be able to have your precious discs.

 

[Dezoris]

Dude, if there is a market, it will get filled. You will be able to have your precious discs.

Just like the market to have specific channels on one satellite provider and not another, thats the format free way of things you are talking about with movies.

The same reason if you went into a Blockbuster you will notice that they have movies no one else has, "Exclusives."

I thought that was something left to the video game companies.

So regardless of formats, set top boxes more "services" make it more likely people will have to subscribe to multiple services to get what they want.

Does not matter because downloading DVD quality and HD movies is 10 years off so its one useless argument over and over.

 

[stratman]

Dude, if there is a market, it will get filled. You will be able to have your precious discs.

You said it "if there's a market," that isn't written in stone, the market can be manipulated without legal recourse as we just witnessed in the HD DVD/Blu-ray debacle, who's to stop the studios from altering the market? CD is in it's twilight, once it's gone who's going to replace it? With what?

 

[Wayde Robson]

Does anyone remember when Blockbuster was accused of altering movies on VHS?

At one time the company had such hubris it actually had a measure of control over what movies could be made. Studios had to make movies that would appear on Blockbuster shelves because it was estimated that some 20% of a film's revenue would be generated at rental.

It was the death of NC-17 because Blockbuster wouldn't shelve them. There were also accustions of Blockbuster friendly versions of movies that had been altered from their theatrical release.

I am glad Blockbuster is losing market share. Rentals shouldn't control so much market. We're in a cinematic dark age right now because a majority of Hollywood recources are devoted to attract 15 year old boys.

Maybe a new business paradigm of movie downloads will empower new movie viewing markets. I know I would watch a lot more documentary and indie movies if I had an easy way to access them and find out about them.

 

[stratman]

Does anyone remember when Blockbuster was accused of altering movies on VHS?

At one time the company had such hubris it actually had a measure of control over what movies could be made. Studios had to make movies that would appear on Blockbuster shelves because it was estimated that some 20% of a film's revenue would be generated at rental.

It was the death of NC-17 because Blockbuster wouldn't shelve them. There were also accustions of Blockbuster friendly versions of movies that had been altered from their theatrical release.

I am glad Blockbuster is losing market share. Rentals shouldn't control so much market. We're in a cinematic dark age right now because a majority of Hollywood recources are devoted to attract 15 year old boys.

Maybe a new business paradigm of movie downloads will empower new movie viewing markets. I know I would watch a lot more documentary and indie movies if I had an easy way to access them and find out about them.

I remember the controversy surrounding Blockbuster and VHS content, I also remember quite well the hand they had in destroying the mom and pop corner video store, who would order stuff for you or personally call you when something you liked or wanted came in, I have no love for the mega stores, what you think you save, costs more in the end with their awful service and dubious pricing.

I don't care what marvels of VOD the techno-geeks are espousing today, market reality is what counts, the day you don't control the content you lose the right, forever. "A new business paradigm of movie downloads," I don't know Wayde.... that sounds like "we'll tell you how you may view/handle content." I'd rather have that control on my side.