As JG says, a refurb doesn't guarantee a perfect product. The odds are, though, that given the labor cost of a US repair shop, the refurb replaced an entire board, rather than look for a single capacitor or resistor. I would say that it's probably much less likely to fail, especially if it's a known problem with a known fix.
I would still not pay more than the 70% the guys above recommend, all the more so if they don't give you at least a year warranty on the fix.