HD DVD vs Blue

[hrtbeat2]

From what I've read in all the HDTV/sound magazines at the end of 05 these will be out. My problem is judt bought a new Samsung DVD player HD841, and I'm hoping they aren't going to do away with standard DVD movies when the HD DVD's come out! Because I've read the DVD players now will not even read the newer DVD do to the increased size? Please correct me if I'm wrong

 

[Rock&Roll Ninja]

Correct: Current DVD players will not be able to play future formats like Blu*Ray or HD-DVD. Future players may play current DVDs, but we can't be certain because there are no players yet.

And regular DVD isn't going to go away anytime soon. DVD is worth as much money to the studios as cinema, and maybe only 5% of the DVD-buying population even has a HDTV. So a HD disk is probably going to stay a niche format for awhile (Like MiniDisk, D-VHS, Vinyl, SACD, & DVD-A).

 

[BMXTRIX]

I really wonder, if prices on HD players fall to the $200.00ish range, while DVD players of any quality are still above $100.00 - would HD players sales increase dramatically? Especially if they were backwards compatible?

Buyers, even those who don't own HD displays, would have a player that could output HD for when they upgrade their display, but could still pick up a regular (or HD) disc from their local Blockbuster and see it tonite on their TV at home.

I mean, if I didn't own HD already, I would still likely buy in the format that people will be using down the road, and the format that I would be upgrading to.

 

[Mort Corey]

If BluRay/HDDVD players come out and are NOT backward compatible, they will never be a mainstream product IMO. The early adoptors are not going to want to be required to have two players to make use of their old software.

Mort

 

[Audioholics]

Remember there's still the issue of quality deinterlacing and scaling. These new players may have high resolution, but they mighht still look really bad if they don't pay attention to other aspects of what make up good video processing.

And software will determine what happens. If they try (and they will) to charge $40 for movies in HD vs. $20 for standard DVD this will quickly become a PC-only format real fast. If, on the other hand, the software is simply send out on two formats for a few dollars premium (what it shoudl be) then perhaps they'll pick up the format quickly.

 

[Duffinator]

If BluRay/HDDVD players come out and are NOT backward compatible, they will never be a mainstream product IMO. The early adoptors are not going to want to be required to have two players to make use of their old software.

Mort

Let's see, my first DVD player back in 1998 was not backwards compatable with VCR and I used both players for a few years. Not exactly apples to apples but you get the idea. I'd rather have one player but I still use a CD player even though my DVD player will play CD's. I think the new format will be backwards compatible so this conversation will be irrelevent. I hope!

One of the driving forces for the new format is the movie studios. Not necessaryily for profit, although that's always a motive, but because of better encryption. The movie execs are shaking in their boots with all the "illegal" copying going on and they want a technology that will stop it. The point of my comment is they are highly motivated to get a new standard introduced that becomes mainstream as quickly as possible. My view is the media will be 30-40% higher than current new release DVD's initially with the price closing to 10-20% within two years. The players will be another issue, but that didn't stop me in 1998 playing almost $500 for a Toshiba DVD player that by today's standards would cost $50.

 

[Rock&Roll Ninja]

Personally, I'd be happy to pay 200% and more for a quality Blu*Ray/HD-DVD when compared to a standard DVD if:

*the MAR foolishness will stop
*We get full bit-rate audio is the correct language, and not 1/2 rate so there can be a three different dub tracks
*No forced trailers/FBI warning
*No commercials at all

 

[hrtbeat2]

MY thoughts are that most people can not and will not go out and buy a $1000 for a DVD player when the ones they have work fine! I myself could buy a $1000 DVD player but will not! I have over 300 DVDs... I know the new players will play the old DVDs but what about that poor SOB who works 3 jobs to support his wife/kids and can't buy one? What about all those who love movies but can't buy a $1000 player So if they are smart they will release the same movies on both formats for aleast 1-2years untill the prices are more around $150-up for a HD DVD player and that way it gives more people a chance to save up. just my 0.2cents

 

[HookedOnSound]

HD DVD or Blue Ray? not so simple...

CDs and DVD (entertainment sector) have become the de facto standard and will continue to persevere for some time yet.

Data storage requirements for industrial and commercial needs have helped accelerate the price decreases but this will only go so far...

IMO, these two technologies have become so entrenched into our daily lives that several factors will have to exist before adoption will become mainstream for either technology to surmount the popularity of CD and DVDs.

As far as video, I am making a prediction that once the ATSC broadcasting format becomes mandatory in US in 2006, HDTV television sales will skyrocket but regular NTSC TVs will have another 5-7 yrs of life expectancy (ATSC converter set-top box), therefore it could take 6-8 yrs before obsolescence eventually replaces those DVD players with HD DVD/Blue-Ray technology that can take advantage of higher resolution TVs. And even then, I doubt you will see a big impact because we have already started to move to other distribution mediums for content delivery (Satelitte, Digital Cable, High Speed Internet , Wireless, etc)

As someone else mentionned, a selective group is hardlining their views and the reasons for introducing a newer format has less to do with developping more storage capability but rather 'protecting' the content with copyright mechanisms such encryption etc....

As for now, newer format media is available but purchased primarily by early adopters and ppl willing to pay for better performance but for the average Joe, he will most likely adopt once he has to...kinda like having to do your taxes.

When I see all the format wars, i just wanna laugh! I am just going to sit on the sidelines and wait till the dust settles, hopefully in 2 years from now one of the new Optical formats will emerge victorious so we can all go about our daily lives so we can forget about! Do you think about BETA vs. VHS format wars? I don't.

Have a great day!

 

[Rock&Roll Ninja]

hopefully in 2 years from now one of the new Optical formats will emerge victorious so we can all go about our daily lives so we can forget about!

2 Years?! Ha! 2 years will be just the "opening volley" of any new format war. SACD and DVD-A have been competeing for what? 6 years? And they aren't even really trying to "one up" the other! (SACD tends to get one music genre, DVD-A the other).Betamax took almost 7 years to die in America, DVD/DIVX lasted nearly 4 years itself.

And unlike Divx/DVD, neither HD-DVD or Blu*Ray are about self destructing disks or "pay to watch again" technology. With 2 formats allowing people to buy & trade movies, the format war can very easily last for years and years, if not decades (Like SACD/DVD-A probably will).

 

[HookedOnSound]

....the format war can very easily last for years and years, if not decades (Like SACD/DVD-A probably will).

That's exactly how I feel about it also.

'Legacy' formats will stiffle progress and adoption and therefore I believe in the old saying: "Get it right the first time!"

The next format to replace DVD will probably be with us for the next 20 yrs...

Cheers,

 

[Duffinator]

MY thoughts are that most people can not and will not go out and buy a $1000 for a DVD player when the ones they have work fine! I myself could buy a $1000 DVD player but will not! I have over 300 DVDs... I know the new players will play the old DVDs but what about that poor SOB who works 3 jobs to support his wife/kids and can't buy one? What about all those who love movies but can't buy a $1000 player So if they are smart they will release the same movies on both formats for aleast 1-2years untill the prices are more around $150-up for a HD DVD player and that way it gives more people a chance to save up. just my 0.2cents

Not to be smug but that poor SOB didn't buy a DVD player until a couple of years ago and won't be marketed to with the initial round of the new format.

There's one HUGE difference between now and and late 1997 when the current DVD format was introduced. Home theater has now become mainstream compared to the niche market it was then. I predict the new format, whichever one it is, will become adopted much faster than you think and along with HDTV will further drive the sales of the newer HD compatible TV's.

 

[BMXTRIX]

Last time I checked - you could still rent VHS tapes at Blockbuster.

Legacy formats will not necessarily stop new formats from coming in.

The possibility of a triple layer Blu-Ray disc with DVD video data that can be read by traditional DVD players on the same disc with Blu-Ray information is something that might really fly. Your video store could stock a single disc that contains an HD movie along with the SD movie and any player (except HD-DVD) could play it.

I am at a point where I am not satisfied with DVD quality though. If I am going to spend money on a movie to own, then I will wait for HD discs to be available. I can rent until then.

 

[Rock&Roll Ninja]

Another thing studio's have to contend with is the rapidly changing rental & owning market. 30 years ago there were no movie stores. You either saw something at the cinema, or waited for the reformatted & edited version to be broadcast on TV (this was before cable too).

In the last 20 years we have gone through RCA videodisk, at least two formats of laserdisc, VHS, beta, S-VHS, D-VHS, 8mm, DVD, DIVX, Harddrive recorders, and probably a few others I've missed.

The rental market was born (thanks to $100 VHS tapes), thrived until 1989 or so when some genius figured Batman should be available for $15. then it died-back when everything became affordable-to-buy, and is currently in its death-throws right now as "monthly subscription" services are exploding at an enormous rate from Blockbuster & Netflix to the local Mom & Pop.

So in the future.......

*HD disks will probably never sell as well as DVD did. Even if the players were free, most people now prefer monthly subscription rentals to owning (at least I do).

*Downloading (both legal & illegal) on internet will become much more popular when America's internet capabilities start to rival Japan & Korea (which is about 1200% faster)

*Cable/satellite "on demand" will further curb disk buyers. especially when surround sound, widescreen, & extras come with them.

*The "delivered" rental market, by several companies (Blockbuster, Netflix, wal*Mart) are already entrenched and willing to bring your lasy *** a movie right to your door (and will proabbly remain cheaper than "on demand").

These are all reason why I went from buying DVDs to renting ('cause when I started there was a very limited selection to rent), and went from a 500+ collection to a under 200 collection.

I'll probably only "own" 25 or so HD-disks. The rental market is just too good.

 

[WooHoo]

There's one HUGE difference between now and and late 1997 when the current DVD format was introduced. Home theater has now become mainstream compared to the niche market it was then. I predict the new format, whichever one it is, will become adopted much faster than you think and along with HDTV will further drive the sales of the newer HD compatible TV's.

I agree with Duffinator. People are scarfing up more and more HDTV monitors all the time. They want technology that lets them get the most out of their investement. Count me in as one of those people.