alandamp said:
What we see as new and exciting, others may see as overpriced and unnecessary. VHS went pretty quietly, but it was time to phase that format out. DVD isn't going anywhere anytime soon. Heck, DVD has only been around for 8 years or so.
I wouldn't be surprised if these formats ended up in limbo like DVD-A and SACD. I think this stuff is getting pushed on the "average joe" a little too quickly (picture Homer Simpson scratching his head).
This is exactly the way I've been thinking about HDDVD/BluRay these days.
I really have trouble seeing either of these formats making much of a dent. It's too little too soon on the heals of the DVD craze. Isn't there only 10 million HDTV owners in North America right now? These new formats can't even be anything more than niche for the forseeable future.
I think it's going to be another 5 or so years before the mainstream consumer is ready for a new format. And that format will have to offer something truly revolutionary like DVD did over VHS.
There's already better formats out there such as those holographic discs, which are
really a substantial step forward, which is what is needed to become a new standard. A subtle evolution like HDDVD/BluRay isn't going to do it in my opinion.
About Holographic disc technology:
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2005/07/19/toshiba_optware_investment/
"Optware's proposed Holographic Versatile Disc (HVD) is the same size as a DVD but holds more than 1TB of information - more than 200 times the capacity of a typical DVD. HVD is faster too, Optware claims, reading data at 1Gbps, 40 times DVD's throughput.
HVD uses a colinear system - essentially the reference and read laser beams are projected along the same axis rather than at an angle through a single objective lens. The upshot is a much simpler system that's better suited to disc media, is smaller and more compatible with DVD and CD.
It's that compatibility which attracted Toshiba's interest, according to the company's HD DVD Promotion Division chief, Hiroharu Satoh, in a statement."
Now THAT sounds like something to get excited about
TeraByte!