Blu-ray is the winner, but math teachers have failed!!

[racquetman]

I found this little gem of an article. It appears as if 8 out of 10 people prefer Blu-ray.

http://www.pcpro.co.uk/news/74940/eight-out-of-10-movie-cats-prefer-bluray-format.html

Well, from this huge poll of 1200 people (that's twice the size of my high school, and I'm pretty sure I went to the smallest high school in America - felt like it anyway) it appears that 8 of 10 people prefer Blu-ray. That's what the title of the article says. One problem. Where the hell did these people learn math? The article says 58% prefer Blu-ray, 16% prefer HD-DVD, and 26% were undecided. Apparently if you're undecided it means that you don't count and your vote is thrown out. Now before someone points out the obvious, yes, out of the people that are decided, about 8 of 10 sided with Blu-ray. However, the article's title doesn't read, "of those decided, 8 out of 10 prefer Blu-ray." It plainly says 8 of 10 prefer Blu-ray, and then contradicts itself in the body of the article.

Anyway, I'm not sure what the point of this poll is, but I guess HD-DVD supporters should be shakin' in their boots.

My points are:

(1) 8 of 10 (80%) didn't prefer Blu-ray - 58% preferred Blu-ray

(2) Why aren't 100% undecided? How do you choose something like this without actually seeing or hearing what these 2 formats can do (I guess those of you out there who bought your speakers without listening to them can answer that one).

(3) 1200 people? If you are going to do a poll of this nature, at least get a representative sample.

 

[BMXTRIX]

1. Your school was definitely not the smallest - when I toured I did a show in Vilas Colorado which had a population of 87 people and the school had about 60 students for K-12. The senior class was 2 people and some kids had to travel 2+ hours each way to the school because it was the closest to their home.

2. An uninformed consumer makes a decision on current expectations, so if the consumers were presented with basic specs for Blu-Ray vs. HD-DVD then Blu-Ray is a clear winner. The only reason HD-DVD has any shot in this world is because it is supposed to be less expensive to setup DVD producing equipment to manufacturer HD-DVD equipment which means it will be out first. But, Blu-Ray offers higher transfer rates and larger storage capacities.

I don't know if I will buy a stand alone player right away, but I fully expect to get a PS3, so I'm throwing in with Blu-Ray one way or the other.

I would call the 'of those who had an opinion' implied within the article. Math is good, perhaps their English is poor?

HOW ABOUT A POLL HERE?

 

[racquetman]

Not bad math, bad data analysis

Ya, I probably didn't word that post the best. It wasn't the math that was bad, it was their statistical analysis that was faulty. That was what I would call "manipulation of the data." You can't throw out 26% of the vote just because they didn't choose a side (that's the whole point of the poll, what side are you leaning towards and 26% weren't sure). If those 26% clearly stated that they had no intention of buying products in either format, then, maybe, you can disregard their vote. Here is an example: I poll 100 people about whether they like Pepsi or Coke better. 1 person likes Pepsi better, 99 people are undecided. The headline reads, "100% of people prefer Pepsi." This is an extreme example, but it follows the same logic used in analyzing the Blu-ray, HD-DVD poll. You can't disregard 99% of the vote because they are undecided. They are statistically significant. They may buy both products, they may buy neither, but that hasn't been clarified, so they can't be disregarded.

The remark about the school was to simply make the point that 1200 people is a not a reasonable sample size for this type of debate. I could poll 1200 people and 8 out of 10 of them could say smoking crack is a good idea. This type of ideology wouldn't hold up if you polled a statistically significant amount of people, say 1,000,000.

BMXTRIX, you sound like you think the winner of this format war will be the one with the better specs. This doesn't necessarily happen in the real world (in would be nice if it did). Most agree that Betamax was a better format, spec-wise, that VHS, but look what happed there. HD-DVD has something going for it that you can't disregard. Its name. People know what HD is. People know what DVD is. People don't necessarily know what Blu-ray is.

Bring on the poll.

 

[Francious70]

I guess I'd be with Blu-ray also, just because of the PS3

Paul

 

[BMXTRIX]

I'm with Blu-Ray not because of specs, but because I think that it will gain incredible market share due specifically to the PS3. In the first year, BD will have over 1 million units in homes throughout the USA due to that alone. HD-DVD will be left in the dust. The movie industry doesn't care who wins, they want to sell discs, they want their money. They are fully prepared to offer all their movies in either format at the drop of a coin.

I would argue that someone undecided who knows that facts about both may be waiting to see who wins - in which case their vote could almost be counted for Blu-Ray Disc which has a majority following. Obviously you can't do that, but undecided in a poll of two products doesn't give any meaningful answer other than 1/4 of the people questioned being unsure of which way they would go. The ONLY reason I would be unsure if I questioned the outcome or wasn't sure if I would buy a PS3.

But, I am buying a PS3 so I am in the BD camp and will bestow the value of having more bandwidth and greater storage capacity to all I know and the chips fall where they will fall, but I'll still have a killer gaming system and no complaints.

 

[racquetman]

Let me play devil's advocate

You may very well be correct about how things will go down, but let me pose a few questions. First of all I'm sure the industry analysts have pondered your scenerio and have forewarned their respective camps of the dangers of being the second one out of the gate with their format. The last time I checked, Xbox 360 was going to beat the PS3 to the market by quite a ways. Hardcore gamers are probably going to eat that thing alive (winning a lot of people over from the PS3 camp would be my guess). I'm sure these new gaming systems are going to be at least as expensive as their predecessors, if not quite a bit more. Are people going to buy a $500 Xbox 360 and then also turn around a buy a $500 PS3? Quite a few will I'm sure, and also quite a few will probably wait for the PS3, but if the Xbox 360 creates a hype, gamers will buy it. Now. Microsoft recently publicly teamed with HD-DVD. You can't tell me that they aren't working hard to get HD-DVD playability into the Xbox. Toshiba has to know that this is critical. Even if the 1st Xbox 360 console doesn't support it, I doubt it will be long before it is an add on or there is a separate xbox version that supports it. Don't be surprised if an HD-DVD drive is in an Xbox 360 before PS3 even makes it to the market. Also HD-DVD had announced around 100 titles being ready for their format by the end of the year quite a while back. I have yet to see any Blu-ray titles announced.

More questions. How many people use their gaming systems as their DVD players? I have no idea, just asking. Everyone I know, however, has a separate DVD player from their video game system. This may change I realize if the cost a game system is significantly less than the cost of a standalone player. Will Blu-ray be backwards compatible with DVD? How well will the first systems work? If they are spotty in their performance will this cause a problem? A lot of people are rough with their gaming systems (don't ask me why). Will that new laser pickup with its tight specifications be able to stand up to people kicking it around or throwing the controller at it? Will the PS3 have a warranty? The PS2 had none!! I'm not going to risk $400 or $500 on a system without a warranty. Why did Sony initiate the format unification talks? I doubt it was because they knew they were going to win and they wanted to give the HD-DVD camp a chance.

I just wanted to throw some of these questions out there. I really don't care who wins, but I like playing devil's advocate. It seems like most want Sony to finally get their day in the spotlight.

 

[BMXTRIX]

Sony, Panasonic, and a host of other companies. The focus is definitely on Sony with Blu-Ray, but they are not following the losing pattern that they have followed in prior products they have used.

DVD+R or DVD-R - which is the winner?

From what I have heard, movie studios are actually ready to go to print with HD movies. The format is not something they have an issue with. They can print, and likely will print, to both HD-DVD and Blu-Ray. Since no 'exclusive' deals have been signed, I wouldn't expect either camp to be much ahead of the other for movie title releases.

The X-Box 360 is definitely a question mark, but at this point there has been no talk of HD-DVD being a part of it. Is some kid who dishes out $400.00ish for a X-Box going to dish out another few hundred for HD-DVD? Or will HD-DVD discs with X-Box games ever going to be available after the first million units are sold with NO HD-DVD capability? I don't think that makes any sense at all. HD-DVD is a new format, not an upgrade. It requires new hardware and if the X-Box 360 doesn't have it from the start, adding it would be as cost prohibitive as simply selling a new game system from scratch.

They may try, but I don't see any world where I would buy an X-Box 360, then buy an add-on HD-DVD player for it. I would just buy a stand alone HD-DVD player.

On the other hand, if I buy a PS3 and have Blu-Ray from the start and like it, I may eventually end up with a stand alone player, but I will be using it for gaming and movies from day one.

I do believe that the new generation of X-Box will do well, but I have no more or less love for Microsoft and products it supports than I do for Sony and products it supports. If X-Box does well, which I am sure it will do, then it may subtract some from the PS3... But, if only 1.2 million PS3s are sold instead of 1.4 million, that is still likely a million more Blu-Ray players in homes vs. HD-DVD players. Of course, I'm pulling figures out of my rear, so that may be completely off.

Either way, the next year and a half should be pretty darn interesting.