Well, an opinion from somebody who hasn't spent a penny either way.
I have a feeling whichever format can advertise $200-300 player with full 1080p with a TV that can handle the data will effectively win the format war. Until a full featured player (cd,dvd,dvr) gets to that price range, 80% of the 'normal' consumers will not feel like risking their bucks on one or the other formats. A dual player in the $400 range would probably entice some of them to jump in.
The closest similar situation I can remember about adoption by the masses is not the Betamax-VHS war, but the Laserdisk. I had heard about the Laserdisk format in the early 80's and it actually goes back to about the same time CD's were released (I bought one in 1989). It was far superior in many ways to VHS including sound and picture clarity. It also was the only way to buy movies in letterbox format, some even had audio comentaries and bonus features. The biggest drawbacks were size and cost. If quality was the only consideration then Laserdisc would have made significant sales to that 80% crowd.
As most of you know, it did not. At $300-$1000 and disks $25-100's it made little headway into the mass market. VHS was too flexible and affordable with the ability to record and archive, even if it was at a lower quality. So, when one format or the other can say that it can match the features of what most people already have in their homes, then they will start plunking down the dinero. Until then, I'll keep my money and invest in whichever company appears to be winning.
