An analyst's view of Blu-ray in today's market

[stratman]

Reported in Twice, the forecast looks forward with caution and a bit of trepidation, the surviving hi def format is still not out of the woods.

Blu-ray's Work Is Still Ahead, Say Analysts

NEW YORK — Analysts covering the HD Disc market said Toshiba's decision to abandon HD DVD should help spark some new interest in purchasing Blu-ray Disc players, but most don't expect it to drive a windfall of new business to the category.

Ross Rubin, The NPD Group industry analysis director, said that while Toshiba's decision was a win for Blu-ray on retail distribution of HD movies, it doesn't necessarily ensure that Blu-ray will become the next DVD.

"All along, both formats were fighting against the high customer satisfaction that consumers continue to have with DVD, particularly up-converting DVD on high-definition televisions," Rubin said. "We also have the continuing threat of digital distribution looming on the horizon as broadband increases and cable, satellite and teleco TV services continue to increase their selections of HD movies on demand."

[snip]

DisplaySearch expects the HD player market will parallel sales of DVD players at comparable stages in the products' launch cycles.

[snip]

She said that while Blu-ray will be successful, she doesn't expect it to "reach the heights of DVD," although not necessarily due to the competition from video downloading.

"Downloading today simply cannot produce the same video-quality experience, though future technology may change that," she said. "But with the expectation for content downloading and portability in the future, it makes sense for Toshiba to invest in its flash products."

http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/2008/02/25/3290509.htm

 

[BMXTRIX]

I like that article, it's a nice non-judgemental view of the serious hurdles that are ahread for the Blu-ray format, and an honest opinion that things are, and could continue to parallel DVD adoption numbers, but only if Blu-ray stays vigilant about the format with decreasing hardware and software prices.

As is always the case, it is these early players and movies that cost the most and work the worst. The PS3 being one oddball exception, yet isn't exactly a cheap exception.

If you know (or care) about video production, then you will know that most of the process of making a great video is about having the right software tools to allow you to do this. DVD has a TON of excellent tools available to studios to master DVDs with great menus and transfers. Blu-ray still has a long way to ramp up to match DVD, let alone to start taking full advantage of 2.0 and 1.1 BD features. I think it is at least two years before those tools will actually be in place in a manner that is really effective.

People may complain about Blu-ray Java, but it is a powerful tool and resource to be utilized. Yet, for many movies, if the tool set is in place to automatically use BD-J, then there is a lot that will end up becoming 'standard' instead of 'really nifty' in the near future. The 'really nifty' will be reserved for blockbuster movies that deserve that extra level of treatment, and I am sure we will see more and more of this as sales continue to increase.

Right now, spending $50,000 (wild guess, not a real number) to get a movie authored and mastered on Blu-ray is fairly significant... In a few years, investing two or three times that number may be considered 'normal' for big budget films, and low budget may sit at that $50K number.

I really am hopeful for the BD format moving forward against DVD, and to see what impact HDDL may have against it as well. I am not so delusional as to believe that BD is a defacto replacement for DVD... I was far more sure about it besting HD DVD, but not nearly as much with DVD. But, I know that the movies I have I truly enjoy the quality which is brought to the table by Blu-ray and am hopeful they will continue with the strong marketing push that has occurred, and the continued and growing CE and studio support.

DVD-A/SACD my left buttcheek - this is nothing like them.

 

[TVJon]

It's all about price point. BluRay players will become the default format when prices decline to the point where they cost slightly more than upscaling DVD players.

It's also about the transition to high-definitiion television. The quality of BluRay video is lost on most people who are still in an analog, standard-definition world. This will change gradually, then ramp up fast in late 2008 and early 2009 when broadcasters pull the plug on their analog transmitters (Feb 09) and force the issue. BluRay marketers would do well to time their educational campaign to match broadcasters pushing people to digital tuners and the benefits of high definition television.

TVJon