How close are we to WWIII?

R

rnatalli

Audioholic Ninja
You’re arguing political outcomes, not battlefield capability. Vietnam and Afghanistan are examples of winning tactically while failing strategically. Those are not the same thing.
Separating battlefield capability from political outcomes misses the entire point of warfare. As Clausewitz once said, war is merely a tool of politics. If a military can destroy targets, but can't translate those actions into a lasting strategic victory, its battlefield capability isn't a success; it's an incredibly expensive, highly lethal failure. In Vietnam and Afghanistan, "winning tactically while losing strategically" simply means the military relied on metrics of power that were irrelevant to winning the actual conflict.

Ukraine is also a bad example for your point. Ukraine is well-trained, technologically adaptive, heavily supported, and has exposed Russia as far less capable than advertised. That says more about Russia being a paper tiger than it does about raw military power being irrelevant.
Dismissing Russia as a paper tiger is hindsight bias. In 2022, Russia possessed overwhelming raw military power by every traditional metric. Ukraine survived not by matching that raw mass, but by dismantling it using decentralized, technologically adaptive, and agile systems. Ukraine's success doesn't prove that raw military power is supreme; it proves that massive, centralized, industrial-era militaries are increasingly obsolete.

Same with philanthropy. You moved from absolute giving to a different measurement system that includes GDP share, volunteering, and other factors. That may be a valid discussion, but it is not the same claim.
The original post simply said the U.S. leads in this area, but provided no measurement system to draw that conclusion.

And nobody is telling you how to live your life, that’s your business. Perhaps more "diet and exercise are good for you."
If diet and exercise is how you cope, I'm happy for you. My BMI is 20.7 so don't need additional diet or exercise.
 
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lovinthehd

lovinthehd

Audioholic Jedi
Might want to look into others aside from trump.

Philanthropy; warren buffet for a quick example. Donor lists are only growing.

Higher education, um yes hence other nationalities/countries coming to the states for a higher education. The ties in the education system that let's individuals travel abroad focus on R&D

Medical research is huge in the US, cleveland clinic, st John's, UH and so on...

your favorite president to hate has nothing to do with the nonsense you propagate
The nonsense was your post indicating somehow your favorite degenerate president was doing such things.....
 
N

Nondemo01

Audioholic
Separating battlefield capability from political outcomes misses the entire point of warfare. As Clausewitz once said, war is merely a tool of politics. If a military can destroy targets, but can't translate those actions into a lasting strategic victory, its battlefield capability isn't a success; it's an incredibly expensive, highly lethal failure. In Vietnam and Afghanistan, "winning tactically while losing strategically" simply means the military relied on metrics of power that were irrelevant to winning the actual conflict.


Dismissing Russia as a paper tiger is hindsight bias. In 2022, Russia possessed overwhelming raw military power by every traditional metric. Ukraine survived not by matching that raw mass, but by dismantling it using decentralized, technologically adaptive, and agile systems. Ukraine's success doesn't prove that raw military power is supreme; it proves that massive, centralized, industrial-era militaries are increasingly obsolete.



The original post simply said the U.S. leads in this area, but provided no measurement system to draw that conclusion.



If diet and exercise is how you cope, I'm happy for you. My BMI is 20.7 so don't need additional diet or exercise.
I don’t disagree with Clausewitz. War is a tool of politics. But that is exactly why separating battlefield capability from political outcome matters.

If the political objective is vague, unrealistic, or unsustainable, then military power cannot magically turn that into a lasting strategic victory. That is not proof battlefield capability was irrelevant. It is proof the political end state was poorly defined or impossible to sustain.

Vietnam and Afghanistan do not prove large military power does not matter. They prove military power cannot compensate for bad policy, weak strategy, and political objectives that were never properly tied to an achievable end state.

Winning tactically while losing strategically does not mean the tactical wins were fake. It means those wins were not connected to a coherent political outcome.

That’s not what Ukraine proves.

Ukraine proves that raw mass by itself is not enough. It does not prove mass is obsolete. There’s a difference.

Russia had the traditional metrics on paper, but it also had corruption, weak leadership, poor logistics, bad assumptions, rigid command structures, and an overestimated ability to execute combined arms warfare. Calling that out after the fact is not hindsight bias. It is the difference between paper strength and actual combat power.

Ukraine did not beat mass with magic. It survived by combining will, adaptation, technology, outside support, and increasingly its own form of massed effects.

So no, Russia was not a paper tiger because it had no power. Russia was a paper tiger because the power it claimed on paper did not translate cleanly into battlefield performance.

“Leads in total giving” and “does not lead by GDP-adjusted generosity” are two different claims. Both can be discussed, but they are not interchangeable.

BMI is a screening tool, not a personality. But I’m glad you’re medically cleared to continue worrying.

I wasn’t prescribing you a workout plan. I was saying some people cope by improving themselves instead of doom-scrolling themselves into anxiety.
 
N

Nondemo01

Audioholic
WHO has assured Trump it's all under control?
Google Pete Hegseth. Look no further. He's removed most if not all of the people who would have advised against this action. In the early stages of Iraqi Freedom, there was a real effort by many within the Bush administration to continue on into Iran. At the time, the analysts and experts within the Department of Defense, CIA, and NSA were able to make the Warhawks understand that would be a tragic mistake.

Those people are now gone, and you’re left dealing with a man who was once (reportedly) called out by his own mother for his mistreatment of women. He's firmly in charge of our young men and women within the military. THAT should scare you MORE than WWIII.
 
D

Dude#1279435

Audioholic Warlord
Google Pete Hegseth. Look no further. He's removed most if not all of the people who would have advised against this action. In the early stages of Iraqi Freedom, there was a real effort by many within the Bush administration to continue on into Iran. At the time, the analysts and experts within the Department of Defense, CIA, and NSA were able to make the Warhawks understand that would be a tragic mistake.

Those people are now gone, and you’re left dealing with a man who was once (reportedly) called out by his own mother for his mistreatment of women. He's firmly in charge of our young men and women within the military. THAT should scare you MORE than WWIII.
In a roundabout way that's what I was getting at. All the advisors (ie experts) are gone.
 
N

Nondemo01

Audioholic
In a roundabout way that's what I was getting at. All the advisors (ie experts) are gone.
Yup. A FNC personality is the determinate factor in deciding when we've "won".

Unless, god forbid, the U.S. Congress does their jobs regarding war powers and oversight.

I think John Mearsheimer’s point in the YouTube video was that July could be a tipping point for the global economy. It may not hit us directly, but the ripple effects will still affect everyday costs.
 
3db

3db

Audioholic Slumlord
Russia is not a paper tiger. The Ukraine lost most of their NATO trained army to the Russians and are running out of people to resupply their forces. Russia’s army now exceeds 1000000 men although maybe not the best trained. Still, that’s far more people able to fight than what Ukraine has.

My real concern is Israel and its plan to take over the Middle East. We saw this back in WW2 with Nazi Germany and now we have Nazi Israel
with the same ambitions under the leadership of the Fuhrer Netanyahu. Trump and his marry band of dumbf?cks got sucked into the Israeli Fuhrer’s plans.

Here’s a link from a retired US colonel spelling out the economic collapse of the US and the rest of the world should Trump’s ego choose to continue the war.

 
R

rnatalli

Audioholic Ninja
I don’t disagree with Clausewitz. War is a tool of politics. But that is exactly why separating battlefield capability from political outcome matters.

If the political objective is vague, unrealistic, or unsustainable, then military power cannot magically turn that into a lasting strategic victory. That is not proof battlefield capability was irrelevant. It is proof the political end state was poorly defined or impossible to sustain.

Vietnam and Afghanistan do not prove large military power does not matter. They prove military power cannot compensate for bad policy, weak strategy, and political objectives that were never properly tied to an achievable end state.

Winning tactically while losing strategically does not mean the tactical wins were fake. It means those wins were not connected to a coherent political outcome.

That’s not what Ukraine proves.

Ukraine proves that raw mass by itself is not enough. It does not prove mass is obsolete. There’s a difference.

Russia had the traditional metrics on paper, but it also had corruption, weak leadership, poor logistics, bad assumptions, rigid command structures, and an overestimated ability to execute combined arms warfare. Calling that out after the fact is not hindsight bias. It is the difference between paper strength and actual combat power.

Ukraine did not beat mass with magic. It survived by combining will, adaptation, technology, outside support, and increasingly its own form of massed effects.

So no, Russia was not a paper tiger because it had no power. Russia was a paper tiger because the power it claimed on paper did not translate cleanly into battlefield performance.

“Leads in total giving” and “does not lead by GDP-adjusted generosity” are two different claims. Both can be discussed, but they are not interchangeable.

BMI is a screening tool, not a personality. But I’m glad you’re medically cleared to continue worrying.

I wasn’t prescribing you a workout plan. I was saying some people cope by improving themselves instead of doom-scrolling themselves into anxiety.
Ukraine proves more than is allowed. A smaller force armed with drones, precision strikes, decentralized command, and real-time intelligence has held off and a larger conventional army with far more resources on its side.

Vietnam and Afghanistan weren't failures of policy that happened to involve militaries. They were failures of the very assumption being defended: that overwhelming conventional power can be translated into political results.

The argument insists mass still matters, yet every condition cited for success such as good leadership, sound logistics, adaptable command, and coherent strategy is exactly what modern precision and technology can either supplement or bypass.

As for giving, they are technically different metrics. When a wealthier country leads in total giving while a smaller, poorer one leads in GDP-adjusted generosity, the question is which is the more honest measure. The GDP-adjusted figure controls for capacity and tells you who is actually giving more relative to what they have. Total giving simply tells you who is biggest.

And as for coping, there's a difference between people coping by improving themselves and implying someone isn't doing that.
 
D

Dude#1279435

Audioholic Warlord
Russia is not a paper tiger. The Ukraine lost most of their NATO trained army to the Russians and are running out of people to resupply their forces. Russia’s army now exceeds 1000000 men although maybe not the best trained. Still, that’s far more people able to fight than what Ukraine has.

My real concern is Israel and its plan to take over the Middle East. We saw this back in WW2 with Nazi Germany and now we have Nazi Israel
with the same ambitions under the leadership of the Fuhrer Netanyahu. Trump and his marry band of dumbf?cks got sucked into the Israeli Fuhrer’s plans.

Here’s a link from a retired US colonel spelling out the economic collapse of the US and the rest of the world should Trump’s ego choose to continue the war.

Sad summary of things to come if we don't get out of this.
 
N

Nondemo01

Audioholic
Ukraine proves more than is allowed. A smaller force armed with drones, precision strikes, decentralized command, and real-time intelligence has held off and a larger conventional army with far more resources on its side.

Vietnam and Afghanistan weren't failures of policy that happened to involve militaries. They were failures of the very assumption being defended: that overwhelming conventional power can be translated into political results.

The argument insists mass still matters, yet every condition cited for success such as good leadership, sound logistics, adaptable command, and coherent strategy is exactly what modern precision and technology can either supplement or bypass.

As for giving, they are technically different metrics. When a wealthier country leads in total giving while a smaller, poorer one leads in GDP-adjusted generosity, the question is which is the more honest measure. The GDP-adjusted figure controls for capacity and tells you who is actually giving more relative to what they have. Total giving simply tells you who is biggest.

And as for coping, there's a difference between people coping by improving themselves and implying someone isn't doing that.
You win. You're totally right. Whatever are we going to do with our large and technologically advanced military?? It's amazing we've never been conquered. How did we ever survive this long? You're amazing. You've got it all figured out. Congrats on that BMI!
 
N

Nondemo01

Audioholic
Russia is not a paper tiger. The Ukraine lost most of their NATO trained army to the Russians and are running out of people to resupply their forces. Russia’s army now exceeds 1000000 men although maybe not the best trained. Still, that’s far more people able to fight than what Ukraine has.

My real concern is Israel and its plan to take over the Middle East. We saw this back in WW2 with Nazi Germany and now we have Nazi Israel
with the same ambitions under the leadership of the Fuhrer Netanyahu. Trump and his marry band of dumbf?cks got sucked into the Israeli Fuhrer’s plans.

Here’s a link from a retired US colonel spelling out the economic collapse of the US and the rest of the world should Trump’s ego choose to continue the war.

Where do you get this stuff? So who's fighting on the front lines now? Pretty sure I was surrounded by Ukrainian military but who knows. Maybe they were from somewhere else.

Pretty sure Israel just wants to exist without being threatened by every one of their neighbors. It's nice living in a country that's not under constant threat from their neighbors isn't it?
 
D

Dude#1279435

Audioholic Warlord
Where do you get this stuff? So who's fighting on the front lines now? Pretty sure I was surrounded by Ukrainian military but who knows. Maybe they were from somewhere else.

Pretty sure Israel just wants to exist without being threatened by every one of their neighbors. It's nice living in a country that's not under constant threat from their neighbors isn't it?
Ah! You were already on the front lines fighting once. Can give you a parachute and drop you back in, but this time in Lebanon. Plus you like $4+ per gallon gas. ;)
 
D

Dude#1279435

Audioholic Warlord
My take is the ones who advocate for more ventures are the ones who don't have to be there. Or worse old soggies who have been there and via tradition believe you must be there. Nevermind what's best for our natl security interests. I assume quite a few of our military leaders value life first and view ventures as a last resort.
 
R

rnatalli

Audioholic Ninja
You win. You're totally right. Whatever are we going to do with our large and technologically advanced military?? It's amazing we've never been conquered. How did we ever survive this long? You're amazing. You've got it all figured out. Congrats on that BMI!
The classic nothing bad can happen because we have tanks defense. It’s a comforting thought, but history is littered with highly advanced, heavily armed empires that collapsed from economic rot, institutional decay, supply-chain failure, or internal instability long before any foreign army ever breached their borders.

I don’t disagree that maintaining a strong military is important, but spending nearly more than everyone else combined is unnecessary. And moving to $1.5T per year as some have proposed will simply speed up the collapse mentioned above.

I enjoy a healthy debate and prefer a healthy BMI to suggesting others smoke a joint to relax.
 
3db

3db

Audioholic Slumlord
Where do you get this stuff? So who's fighting on the front lines now? Pretty sure I was surrounded by Ukrainian military but who knows. Maybe they were from somewhere else.

Pretty sure Israel just wants to exist without being threatened by every one of their neighbors. It's nice living in a country that's not under constant threat from their neighbors isn't it?
Look up Sachs on Youtube, an American Jewish professor who claims that Israel has become a fascist Jewish state bent on expanding into the middle east. I agree that Israel has a right to exist in a peaceful two nation state of them and Palestine but they do not have the right to wipe out Palestine nor do they have the right to expand into other countries' territories as part of Netanyahu's greater Israel plan.
Lookup Wilkerson, Pape, and Giesen on youtube to see what is really go on and beyond the control of US media by the Israel.

If you want to learn about what is really going on, Id suggest watching the podcasts that I have posted in this thread.
 
Mikado463

Mikado463

Audioholic Spartan
Look up Sachs on Youtube, an American Jewish professor who claims that Israel has become a fascist Jewish state bent on expanding into the middle east. I agree that Israel has a right to exist in a peaceful two nation state of them and Palestine but they do not have the right to wipe out Palestine nor do they have the right to expand into other countries' territories as part of Netanyahu's greater Israel plan.
Lookup Wilkerson, Pape, and Giesen on youtube to see what is really go on and beyond the control of US media by the Israel.

If you want to learn about what is really going on, Id suggest watching the podcasts that I have posted in this thread.
all well and good but anybody that relies solely on podcasts, yeah, right .............
 
3db

3db

Audioholic Slumlord
all well and good but anybody that relies solely on podcasts, yeah, right .............
Far better cry than the Israeli controlled news that gets published. Before you sh?t on podcasts, why don't you look up their credentials. You may learn something but I doubt it with your close minded attitude. At least I'm not a product of the environment I was raised in and spit out on an assembly line without the ability for critical thinking.
 
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D

Dude#1279435

Audioholic Warlord
Russia is not a paper tiger. The Ukraine lost most of their NATO trained army to the Russians and are running out of people to resupply their forces. Russia’s army now exceeds 1000000 men although maybe not the best trained. Still, that’s far more people able to fight than what Ukraine has.

My real concern is Israel and its plan to take over the Middle East. We saw this back in WW2 with Nazi Germany and now we have Nazi Israel
with the same ambitions under the leadership of the Fuhrer Netanyahu. Trump and his marry band of dumbf?cks got sucked into the Israeli Fuhrer’s plans.

Here’s a link from a retired US colonel spelling out the economic collapse of the US and the rest of the world should Trump’s ego choose to continue the war.

I'll add I don't think the economy is crumbling. Yet. I also think McGregor is goofy to stop Ukraine support, but I did find sad the slithery idea Netanyahu wants the US to fight Iran so Israel can bomb Lebanon.
 

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