I wouldn't recommend that any casual observer or even someone that didn't invest too heavily (like a $100 player) in HD DVD buy discs, as most of them aren't that great a deal--$10 for the HD DVD vs. $15-20 for a used Blu-Ray on E-bay.
I agree with your entire post allargon...and even this statement, when qualified.
Firstly, yes, if one is only going to buy 5-10 movies, why get into it, unless you want it for upscaling? And, oh, let's not forget about the seven free movies included (2 in box, 5 by mail) with purchase (through today only).
But that's where it stops. If one buys a number of movies, preferably not repeats, it can be an incredible bargain. I'm scooping up desirable movies left and right for less than $10 per (tax and shipping included). When included with my freebies, I think I'm up to about 40 movies so far, and have only spent $175 on movies...that's $4.50 a piece! That doesn't include the more expensive (@ $7.50 per disc) Planet Earth set, or the additional discs included with the movies (1 w/ Beowulf, 2 w/ HP, 2 w/ Matrix, etc.). I generally buy the movie, so the extra discs are of little importance to me.
I guess my point is (which you already alluded to), this has been an incredible opportunity...and a great ride this past two weeks

), to spend some money on a great player, and get a ton of movies that will avearge $5-$10 per. I don't think I would have bought into it without these firesales. It's the sales that prompted me to go feet first...and I have no regrets. 1080p/24Hz on a 120" screen is well, simply put, amazing. And the huge plus of DD+ and especially True on some of these movies seals the deal.
I have a short list of about another ten movies that I will scoop up at $10-$12 per in case they run out. When they hit $5-$6-$7, I may splurge on some of those flicks that I don't consider to be must haves.
Let the HD sales continue! HD rocks!!!