Trade Wars

[Trell]

Blame it on the unions for working for living wages while excoriating workers for wanting inexpensive goods when most households needs two incomes and experience declining real wages. The Nordic countries, or EU for that matter, are very much more unionized than US and we do have a pretty good life overall with longer life expectancy.

But hey, I'm sure US sweatshops producing $1 T-shirts will bring prosperity and middle-class lifestyle for you all.

As for the low US life expectancy I've written about it before (with sources) but here is another one in an article by Krugman. For males it's even lower.

Attack of the Quack-Industrial Complex

Another front in the war on American greatness

paulkrugman.substack.com

 

[Mr._Clark]

Afraid it's not in my pay range LOL. This guy says I dunno seems like a bunch of mathematical BS.

The American Enterprise Institute says the administration used the wrong number in its tariff formula.

>>>[E]ven if one were to take the Trump Administration’s tariff formula seriously, it makes an error that inflates the tariffs assumed to be levied by foreign countries four-fold. As a result, the “reciprocal” tariffs imposed by President Trump are highly inflated as well. . . .

the elasticity of import prices with respect to tariffs should be about one (actually 0.945), not 0.25 as the Trump Administration states. Their mistake is that they base the elasticity on the response of retail prices to tariffs, as opposed to import prices as they should have done. The article they cite by Alberto Cavallo and his coauthors makes this distinction clear. The authors state that “tariffs [are] passed through almost fully to US import prices,” while finding “more mixed evidence regarding retail price increases.” It is inconsistent to multiply the elasticity of import demand with respect to import prices by the elasticity of retail prices with respect to tariffs.

Correcting the Trump Administration’s error would reduce the tariffs assumed to be applied by each country to the United States to about a fourth of their stated level, and as a result, cut the tariffs announced by President Trump on Wednesday by the same fraction, subject to the 10 percent tariff floor. As shown in Table 1, the tariff rate would not exceed 14 percent for any country. For all but a few countries, the tariff would be exactly 10 percent, the floor imposed by the Trump Administration.<<<

President Trump’s Tariff Formula Makes No Economic Sense. It’s Also Based on an Error.

President Donald Trump announced tariffs on practically every foreign country (and some non-countries), ranging from a 10 percent minimum all the way up to 50 percent. He described the tariffs as reciprocal; however, they are nothing of the sort.

www.aei.org

The author of the paper cited by the administration also pointed out the error:

Not that it matters. The formula is nonsense to begin with and the administration will never admit an error.

 

[Mr._Clark]

Musk and Navarro are having a (sarcasm alert) highly principled intellectual dispute concerning Tesla's manufacturing processes.

>>>“Navarro is truly a moron. What he says here is demonstrably false,” Musk wrote on the social platform X in response to a video . . .

“Navarro is dumber than a sack of bricks,” he added, writing later, “By any definition whatsoever, Tesla is the most vertically integrated auto manufacturer in America with the highest percentage of US content. Navarro should ask the fake expert he invented, Ron Vara.”<<<

https://thehill.com/policy/technology/5237811-elon-musk-slams-navarro-tariffs/

The hotter heads seem to be prevailing.

 

[BoredSysAdmin]

I found this video exceptionally informational and unusually lacking most of his typical sarcasm.

 

[GO-NAD!]

The way drumphy is determining punitive tariff rates is crazy. He derives it from a calculation based on imbalance of trade/deficit spec, and blames it solely on the other country when it is the citizen consumer that is largely responsible (and our consumer mindset). As usual he spreads misinformation as a basis for his actions.

 

[mtrycrafts]

From YT hahaha....

70 plus countries have already come to the table to drop all tariffs entirely. Cost of everything will start to drop tremendously --ConspiroTruth

But HE doesn't like that as he wants to be self-sufficient, isolationist, next to impossible in today's global economy and quick access to markets.

 

[mtrycrafts]

Someone made the point tariffs protect existing industries. They do not create new ones. Tariff walls decrease competition. Therefore prices go up. If you want to centralize industry in America, it takes time. How you do this with a higher standard of living I dunno.

And lots of money to set up industrial production, not to mention qualified workers, or enough.

 

[mtrycrafts]

The U.S. has about 30% of the world’s wealth and 5% of the population so unclear how it’s being ripped off.

It's not 50% or 75%.

 

[Mr._Clark]

The administration now says it will impose a 104% tariff on top of existing tariffs on goods from China.

>>>President Donald Trump is set to impose an astounding 104% in levies across all Chinese imports on Wednesday, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt announced on Tuesday. This comes on top of Chinese tariffs that were in place prior to Trump’s second term.<<<

https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/08/business/trump-china-tariff/index.html

Perhaps this will inspire an action hero movie: Infinity Trade Wars.

 

[mtrycrafts]

The administration now says it will impose a 104% tariff on top of existing tariffs on goods from China.

...

Is that all?

He cannot count higher, like 200%, 400% or more?

Why not just say you cannot import those products.

 

[dlaloum]

Someone made the point tariffs protect existing industries. They do not create new ones. Tariff walls decrease competition. Therefore prices go up. If you want to centralize industry in America, it takes time. How you do this with a higher standard of living I dunno.

You don't - there is no credible authority that says that!

On the other hand, the impact to the standard of living within the Oligarchy, is NIL.

So they don't care.

It is up to the people who WILL be impacted, to ensure that their actions impose a relevant impact on the fat cats at the top of the heap, who are otherwise unaffected, and therefore don't care - make them care.

 

[lovinthehd]

Starting to remind me of when the TSUS (tariff schedules of the US) had column 2 duty rates for China before they were granted mfn treatment except instead of "bad" commie countries we're going the other way around somewhat with our lord helmet-tatin' drumphy.

 

[Mr._Clark]

Is that all?

He cannot count higher, like 200%, 400% or more?

Why not just say you cannot import those products.

Rumor has it he can't count to 21 with his clothes on, so 200 is probably out of his range.

 

[Dude#1279435]

That's rather disappointing. Even Breaking Points can't be honest with their headlines. Problem is the market projection began during the START of the day. I looked at their market graph and yeah April 8 at about 7am. I tuned into the news yesterday evening and all three market indicators were down.

Well this is embarrassing since the market tanked again late in the day thanks to Trump.

 

[GO-NAD!]

Is this what Americans want? It's what Trump wants, apparently.

China Creates Mocking AI Video of Average Americans Working in Garment Factory

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1909348105675211192

And coal miners would much rather be down in the pit than lazing around a penthouse on 5th Ave. How condescending.

Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com)

Trump: "One thing I learned about the coal miners -- that's what they want to do. You could give them a penthouse on 5th Avenue and a different kind of a job and they'd be unhappy. They want to mine coal. She was gonna put them in a high tech industry where you make little cell phones and things."

bsky.app

 

[Trell]

China hits back with 84% retaliatory tariffs on US goods.

 

[Eppie]

Is this what Americans want? It's what Trump wants, apparently.

China Creates Mocking AI Video of Average Americans Working in Garment Factory

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1909348105675211192

And coal miners would much rather be down in the pit than lazing around a penthouse on 5th Ave. How condescending.

Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com)

Trump: "One thing I learned about the coal miners -- that's what they want to do. You could give them a penthouse on 5th Avenue and a different kind of a job and they'd be unhappy. They want to mine coal. She was gonna put them in a high tech industry where you make little cell phones and things."

bsky.app

I was wondering whether to post that meme from Instagram. It's not very flattering. I think they are overestimating the number of auto-sector jobs as well. Any new auto plant will be highly mechanized. Most of the work is performed by robots with human oversight. My brother-in-law works for Magna programming robots on factory assembly lines. Those plants are highly adaptable and they can retool quite quickly.

 

[Mr._Clark]

I was wondering whether to post that meme from Instagram. It's not very flattering. I think they are overestimating the number of auto-sector jobs as well. Any new auto plant will be highly mechanized. Most of the work is performed by robots with human oversight. My brother-in-law works for Magna programming robots on factory assembly lines. Those plants are highly adaptable and they can retool quite quickly.

My impression is that a lot of the support for tariffs is based on a belief that tariffs will create large numbers of high paying, low skill factory jobs. I'm skeptical, to say the least. Of course, I also wonder how many people really want to work in sweatshops as alluded to in the video.

Having said that, creating massive new automated factories in the U.S. would be a financial challenge. Even the largest companies have limits, especially if there's an economic downturn. I find myself mulling the GM bankruptcy and wondering if similar scenarios could play out if the administration digs in on tariffs.

 

[GO-NAD!]

I was wondering whether to post that meme from Instagram. It's not very flattering. I think they are overestimating the number of auto-sector jobs as well. Any new auto plant will be highly mechanized. Most of the work is performed by robots with human oversight. My brother-in-law works for Magna programming robots on factory assembly lines. Those plants are highly adaptable and they can retool quite quickly.

No, it isn't flattering. It was meant to be mocking. There is a point behind it though. These are the kind of jobs that Trump wants to bring back to America. How many Americans will want to work in those garment factories? Unemployment is already low and they're busy deporting all the people who would consider working there. They will have to automate most of the jobs, or nobody will be able to afford the products.

 

[Mr._Clark]

There has also been a sell-off of U.S. government bonds.

>>>A sharp sell-off in U.S. government bond markets and the dollar has set off fears about the growing fallout from President Trump’s sweeping tariffs, raising questions about what is typically seen as the safest corner for investors during times of turmoil.

Yields on 10-year Treasuries — the benchmark for a wide variety of debt — shot 0.2 percentage points higher at one point on Wednesday, to 4.45 percent, a huge move in that market before it subsided a bit. Just a few days ago, they had traded below 4 percent. Yields on the 30-year bond rose significantly as well, briefly topping 5 percent.

That has helped to push up borrowing costs globally, including in Britain and across emerging markets. Other markets considered alternative safe havens to the United States gained, however. . . .

Adding to Wednesday’s angst was the fact that the U.S. dollar, which is the world’s dominant currency and was largely expected to strengthen as Mr. Trump’s tariffs came into effect, has instead weakened.

“The global safe-haven status is in question,” said Priya Misra, a portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management. “Disorderly moves have happened this week because there is no safe place to hide.”<<< (emphasis added)

Bond Sell Off Raises Questions About U.S. Safe Haven Status

As the fallout from President Trump’s global trade war spreads, investors are fleeing what is typically seen as the safest corner.

www.nytimes.com

Here's another article on the same topic.

>>>Higher yields mean bond prices are declining, which isn’t typically what happens when stocks are selling off—investors generally buy U.S. Treasuries, considered the safest debt, in times of uncertainty. But despite the turmoil in the financial markets triggered by tariffs, Treasuries have been dumped, particularly those with long durations.<<< (emphasis added)

https://www.barrons.com/articles/us-treasury-bonds-selloff-market-48ba83be

The Barrons article mentions many possible reasons for the sell-off, but it's not clear what the "right" answer is.

If this continues, it does not bode well.