Bad day to be a terrorist

[TankTop5]

Mossad is at the top of the short list of people not to mess with, they of course denied any involvement. Videos on X are pretty graphic, viewer discretion advised.

Pager detonations wound thousands, majority Hezbollah members, in suspected cyberattack

Lebanese health officials estimated up to around 4,000 wounded, with 200 in critical condition and 11 killed.

m.jpost.com

 

[TLS Guy]

Mossad is at the top of the short list of people not to mess with, they of course denied any involvement. Videos on X are pretty graphic, viewer discretion advised.

Pager detonations wound thousands, majority Hezbollah members, in suspected cyberattack

Lebanese health officials estimated up to around 4,000 wounded, with 200 in critical condition and 11 killed.

m.jpost.com

The question remains: - Who did it?

The pagers were made by Gold Apollo of Taiwan. It seems to me that the Israeli Mossad's spies could hardly have had access to that huge number of pagers and modified them without detection.

So, it seems that the pagers were most likely boobytrapped in Taiwan. So who benefits? Of course the Israelis. But how did they get access? I suppose the finger could go to China, who might have an interest in having Israel blamed. I can't see how Taiwan would benefit from this.

I suppose it is possible that Israel could have had access in transit. If Israel did do this, then they have plausible deniability, until someone can definitively prove where this was done, why and by whom.

At this time Israel have plausible deniability, although they are the obvious beneficiaries.

This is a strange one to say the least.

 

[GO-NAD!]

The question remains: - Who did it?

The pagers were made by Gold Apollo of Taiwan. It seems to me that the Israeli Mossad's spies could hardly have had access to that huge number of pagers and modified them without detection.

So, it seems that the pagers were most likely boobytrapped in Taiwan. So who benefits? Of course the Israelis. But how did they get access? I suppose the finger could go to China, who might have an interest in having Israel blamed. I can't see how Taiwan would benefit from this.

I suppose it is possible that Israel could have had access in transit. If Israel did do this, then they have plausible deniability, until someone can definitively prove where this was done, why and by whom.

At this time Israel have plausible deniability, although they are the obvious beneficiaries.

This is a strange one to say the least.

As I understand it, it seems they were able to gain access to the pagers remotely and make the lithium ion batteries explode.

 

[TLS Guy]

As I understand it, it seems they were able to gain access to the pagers remotely and make the lithium ion batteries explode.

As I understand that is totally debunked. That would not be possible, and if it was, the injuries are too severe to be caused by an Li battery. Experts on BBC say it would have required at least 20 to 30 gm of high explosive to cause the kind of damage those exploding devices caused. Some were killed and according to reports, many of the injuries are very severe, with hospitals overloaded throughout Lebanon.

My feeling is that someone, somehow, had access at the factory.

 

[GO-NAD!]

As I understand that is totally debunked. That would not be possible, and if it was, the injuries are too severe to be caused by an Li battery. Experts on BBC say it would have required at least 20 to 30 gm of high explosive to cause the kind of damage those exploding devices caused. Some were killed and according to reports, many of the injuries are very severe, with hospitals overloaded throughout Lebanon.

My feeling is that someone, somehow, had access at the factory.

Yeah, reading a later report, I see that this was indeed debunked.

So yes, they may have fiddled with them at the factory. I'm guessing intercepted somewhere after shipping.

 

[mtrycrafts]

Most interesting. What will they use next? Pigeons?

 

[TLS Guy]

Yeah, reading a later report, I see that this was indeed debunked.

So yes, they may have fiddled with them at the factory. I'm guessing intercepted somewhere after shipping.

I really doubt that, as that would have been a monumental amount of work to disassemble thousands of those hard to work on devices and connect the explosive device to the board. This likely would have required soldering to the board. Then you have to reassemble each one and leave no evidence it had been opened.

My view is that far more likely than not this was done at the factory during fabrication. That would be the only practical place to do it to that many devices. May be a handful or a little more could be done in intercept, but not thousands. The latter requires mass production. So, as unlikely as it may seem at first glance, the place of the tampering on that scale, pretty much has to be the factory that made them.

 

[ryanosaur]

I think the clear lesson is: do not piss off the Israelis. For those who might have missed earlier memos…

My suspicion is perhaps not at the factory, but intercepted at a “safe” place between Iran and Lebanon.

I don’t think it would take much for Israeli intelligence to figure out where the pagers are coming from, and even perhaps how often they are changed out. Knowing there are blocks on Iran, they prabobaly watched for suspicious orders over a period of time before figuring out the mechanism Iran provides the pagers.
As a side note, I have an acquaintance who specializes in legal industrial spying. He can probably tell me when Apple has containers landing at certain ports in the us along with any associated info regarding weight and such…
Anyway, anybody can do that research, so figuring out who is ordering these, where they are routing through, and perhaps even further destinations… that’s child’s play.
The pro work comes in when you decide to either remotely load malware or physically alter the devices on that scale… where and how that is accomplished…

Well, it’s beyond my skill and pay level, that’s for certain.

Either way, I guarantee any governmental Iranians and said associates using such pagers have all ditched them and are sweating bullets.

 

[TLS Guy]

I think the clear lesson is: do not piss off the Israelis. For those who might have missed earlier memos…

My suspicion is perhaps not at the factory, but intercepted at a “safe” place between Iran and Lebanon.

I don’t think it would take much for Israeli intelligence to figure out where the pagers are coming from, and even perhaps how often they are changed out. Knowing there are blocks on Iran, they prabobaly watched for suspicious orders over a period of time before figuring out the mechanism Iran provides the pagers.
As a side note, I have an acquaintance who specializes in legal industrial spying. He can probably tell me when Apple has containers landing at certain ports in the us along with any associated info regarding weight and such…
Anyway, anybody can do that research, so figuring out who is ordering these, where they are routing through, and perhaps even further destinations… that’s child’s play.
The pro work comes in when you decide to either remotely load malware or physically alter the devices on that scale… where and how that is accomplished…

Well, it’s beyond my skill and pay level, that’s for certain.

Either way, I guarantee any governmental Iranians and said associates using such pagers have all ditched them and are sweating bullets.

However did this, pulled off a remarkable feat. The Israelis will continue to deny involvement until there is incontrovertible proof they did it and where. Lebanon is a very divided country ethnically and religiously. Israel is far from the only enemy of Hezbollah. They have plenty of others.

 

[TankTop5]

However did this, pulled off a remarkable feat. The Israelis will continue to deny involvement until there is incontrovertible proof they did it and where. Lebanon is a very divided country ethnically and religiously. Israel is far from the only enemy of Hezbollah. They have plenty of others.

Mossad never takes credit for anything but a movie deal is probably being inked as we speak

 

[ryanosaur]

However did this, pulled off a remarkable feat. The Israelis will continue to deny involvement until there is incontrovertible proof they did it and where. Lebanon is a very divided country ethnically and religiously. Israel is far from the only enemy of Hezbollah. They have plenty of others.

Agreed, but only one with the resources and desire to do something like this.

To be clear, we can only speculate.

As a side note, this was an absolutely horrific act, akin to land mines and cluster munitions. Sadly, what “rules” may apply to any militant group hiding among civilians are easily thrown out when same militants are threatening civilians in another state.

Much like what happened and continues to happen with Hamas, a very scary gray area is being scratched out.
What Hamas and Hezbollah are doing is clearly wrong by any standard but their own.
When faced with this, what is Israel supposed to do?

I absolutely do not condone Israeli actions. I also do not condone what any of the Iranian proxies are doing.

How do you handle a regional conflict when both sides, including a traditional US ally, are so clearly in the wrong?

 

[TankTop5]

I think the clear lesson is: do not piss off the Israelis. For those who might have missed earlier memos…

My suspicion is perhaps not at the factory, but intercepted at a “safe” place between Iran and Lebanon.

I don’t think it would take much for Israeli intelligence to figure out where the pagers are coming from, and even perhaps how often they are changed out. Knowing there are blocks on Iran, they prabobaly watched for suspicious orders over a period of time before figuring out the mechanism Iran provides the pagers.
As a side note, I have an acquaintance who specializes in legal industrial spying. He can probably tell me when Apple has containers landing at certain ports in the us along with any associated info regarding weight and such…
Anyway, anybody can do that research, so figuring out who is ordering these, where they are routing through, and perhaps even further destinations… that’s child’s play.
The pro work comes in when you decide to either remotely load malware or physically alter the devices on that scale… where and how that is accomplished…

Well, it’s beyond my skill and pay level, that’s for certain.

Either way, I guarantee any governmental Iranians and said associates using such pagers have all ditched them and are sweating bullets.

The size and complexity of an operation like this while keeping it a secret is pretty crazy.

The psychological impact and destroying Hezbollah’s communications plus the countless number of senior leadership that are dead or no longer able to function in the organization is staggering. Identifying them after will be much easier. This will go down in history as one of the most successful military operations ever.

 

[TankTop5]

Agreed, but only one with the resources and desire to do something like this.

To be clear, we can only speculate.

As a side note, this was an absolutely horrific act, akin to land mines and cluster munitions. Sadly, what “rules” may apply to any militant group hiding among civilians are easily thrown out when same militants are threatening civilians in another state.

Much like what happened and continues to happen with Hamas, a very scary gray area is being scratched out.
What Hamas and Hezbollah are doing is clearly wrong by any standard but their own.
When faced with this, what is Israel supposed to do?

I absolutely do not condone Israeli actions. I also do not condone what any of the Iranian proxies are doing.

How do you handle a regional conflict when both sides, including a traditional US ally, are so clearly in the wrong?

I think the only option is to take out the Iranian Mullahs, cut the head off the snake. Of course Saudi and Qatar would step in and fill the void.

 

[ryanosaur]

@ski2xblack @TLS Guy
I'm not trying to be daft, and I completely respect your disliking my post. Would appreciate a response to help me understand why. I'm certainly not an expert on the complexities over there and am open good advice on how to think about it.

 

[TLS Guy]

@ski2xblack @TLS Guy
I'm not trying to be daft, and I completely respect your disliking my post. Would appreciate a response to help me understand why. I'm certainly not an expert on the complexities over there and am open good advice on how to think about it.

First of all we do not know that Israel did this, although that is the probability. However Arabs are a fractious lot with a long history of falling out with each other. This was perfectly illustrated in the final scene of Laurence of Arabia, which closely followed Laurence's account in his "Seven Pillars of Wisdom".

Israel can not afford to have territory it can not have it citizens live in. That is exactly what is happening South of the Lebanon border. Hezbollah continue to lob missiles into Israel. In addition with their Houthi allies they have disrupted shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden for a year now. This has also denied access to the Suez canal, which has significantly harmed the Egyptian economy. So there are other states in the area that would like to see Hezbollah's wings clipped.

Even if we assume that Israel did this, it was the ultimate targeted attack, which overwhelmingly harmed combatants and not civilians. This has been even more successful than first thought, and has for the time being taken 3000 Hezbollah fighters out of the equation. If this is part of the Israeli plan, then I expect Israeli forces to move into Lebanon imminently and reoccupy the Golan Heights. I would expect them to control the high ground North of the Israeli border for the foreseeable future.

How this incredible feat was pulled off is a mystery, but most experts think those pagers must have been intercepted at some other country and Mossad somehow manage to modify a huge number of pagers.
There has never been anything remotely like this in the history of warfare.

 

[Tankini]

As I understand that is totally debunked. That would not be possible, and if it was, the injuries are too severe to be caused by an Li battery. Experts on BBC say it would have required at least 20 to 30 gm of high explosive to cause the kind of damage those exploding devices caused. Some were killed and according to reports, many of the injuries are very severe, with hospitals overloaded throughout Lebanon.

My feeling is that someone, somehow, had access at the factory.

Or someone that Had direct access during assembly and terrorists kidnapped him/her or held hostage one of their family members in order to do what they had to do to in order to have those devices explode. There's that don't know how plausible that is though. Terrorist fanatics will do anything and stop at nothing to kill, murder innocent people. For whatever agenda they're pushing. I do know this, no matter how bad the chaos gets there's always somebody behind it. It usually starts with just one person or group of fanatics.

 

[Jeepers]

If this is part of the Israeli plan, then I expect Israeli forces to move into Lebanon imminently and reoccupy the Golan Heights. I would expect them to control the high ground North of the Israeli border for the foreseeable future.

What am I missing ? Israel already occupies two thirds of the Golan Heights since 1967 and annexed it in 1981.

 

[GO-NAD!]

Agreed, but only one with the resources and desire to do something like this.

To be clear, we can only speculate.

I'm going to go with Occam's razor on this. I think the possibility that anyone other than the Israelis doing this is pretty remote.

As a side note, this was an absolutely horrific act, akin to land mines and cluster munitions. Sadly, what “rules” may apply to any militant group hiding among civilians are easily thrown out when same militants are threatening civilians in another state.

Disagree with this. With any military action, when there are civilians in the vicinity, there is the possibility of collateral casualties. However, this was very much a targeted attack, with pagers assigned to individuals.

Much like what happened and continues to happen with Hamas, a very scary gray area is being scratched out.
What Hamas and Hezbollah are doing is clearly wrong by any standard but their own.
When faced with this, what is Israel supposed to do?

I absolutely do not condone Israeli actions. I also do not condone what any of the Iranian proxies are doing.

How do you handle a regional conflict when both sides, including a traditional US ally, are so clearly in the wrong?

Sorting out the right and the wrong with this conflict is practically impossible. Hamas is clearly the instigator and I have no sympathy for them. Israel had every right to respond to the Oct 7th attack. However, their scorched earth effort to stamp out Hamas has lead to an unconscionable degree of destruction and civilian death and suffering in Gaza.

 

[TLS Guy]

I'm going to go with Occam's razor on this. I think the possibility that anyone other than the Israelis doing this is pretty remote.

Disagree with this. With any military action, when there are civilians in the vicinity, there is the possibility of collateral casualties. However, this was very much a targeted attack, with pagers assigned to individuals.

Sorting out the right and the wrong with this conflict is practically impossible. Hamas is clearly the instigator and I have no sympathy for them. Israel had every right to respond to the Oct 7th attack. However, their scorched earth effort to stamp out Hamas has lead to an unconscionable degree of destruction and civilian death and suffering in Gaza.

The bits and pieces are falling into place.

The pagers were made under license from Gold Apollo in Hungary by BAC consulting KFT. However Cristiana Barsony-Arcidiacono, the CEO of BAC Consulting the CEO denied being involved. She, it so happens, was trained in the UK, and has a PhD.

It seems as little as 3 gm of high explosive was in each device.

Hungary is not a surprising place for this manufacture to have taken place. Victor Oban of Hungary is very close friends with Netanyahu. He is also an associate of Donald Trump who has wined and dined Victor Oban at Mar-a-largo.

This is still very much a developing story.

 

[TLS Guy]

What am I missing ? Israel already occupies two thirds of the Golan Heights since 1967 and annexed it in 1981.

It is complicated. Israel still occupies the southern portion of the Golan heights. Hezbollah have been operating from the high ground along the part that borders with Lebanon. This has been causing significant damage, and making it impossible for Israeli settlers to return to their homes in Northern Israel.