American audio industry may suffer a blow..

KEW

KEW

Audioholic Overlord
Basically you have said that it is poor judgement that results in mature adults who are living paycheck to paycheck. That is a pretty judgmental statement.
please don't tell me that you don't see truth in that ???? If you would look at what I said in post #178 perhaps you would understand that I am NOT condemning everyone that lives paycheck to paycheck !!!!!!
No, but by all indications you do seem to think, what ... 95%(?) are deadbeats!
In case you were not paying attention, we had a significant economic depression a few years ago. Lots of people lost their jobs due to layoffs then defaulted on their mortgages (or had to drain their retirement savings to avoid selling). At the time, losing your job also meant you and your family lost insurance (or had to pay a small fortune for it), and if you had a pre-existing condition, you were totally screwed!
Wall Street came through this unscathed for the most part thanks to government bail-outs, but "Main Street, USA" suffered. Apparently, you made it through unscathed. I am happy for anyone who did!
My point is that instead of recognizing your good fortune, you choose to believe those not so lucky are of flawed character.
Do you honestly not know any decent people who lost their jobs and either could not find another job or had to take a large cut in pay to find any work... for well over a year? I know a ton, especially in residential and commercial construction, but in manufacturing as well!

Historically, the RR industry has given excellent pension benefits.
and we still do !
Great! Yet another bullet you dodged. It is not something you had control over. True that the RR industry fared better than most through the hard times, but not everyone can work for the RR industry!

Most people have no pension. Many who did, lost it or had it cut in half or worse when stocks crashed.
and who's fault is that ?
What? Do you think it was the fault of the employee that their pension got cut?
 
KEW

KEW

Audioholic Overlord
Congrats, if I infer correctly you have done so well without a college education (I assume a clerk is not a position that requires a college degree).
Where did I ever say I didn't have a college education, man your comprehension skills are lacking ! Regardless, 44 plus years ago I started my career (as I said) as a railroad clerk, I've long since advanced from that position.
I wanted to address this response in a separate post, because it is so absurd!?

How could you ever read my post as indicating you said you didn't have a college education?
When someone says "if I infer correctly" it is a qualifier that indicates I had to guess at it. If I believed you had said you weren't college educated, I would not have needed to infer anything. Do you follow? Kind of ironic you believe my comprehension skills are lacking!

You diverged from our discussion to personally insult me as a way of avoiding addressing my main point which is after you said I was "wrong on all counts", it seems you completely missed (again the irony) point 4 of my speculation - that you either had no family or what family you had (and yourself) were blessed with good health!

However, this does beg the question of how, if I am correct in inferring you were still a clerk, you could afford to pay for room, board, and transportation, while paying for college. Did the RR fund your schooling? Did you family supply room and board? Maybe the RR paid their clerks very well, but I'd be surprised they paid that well. The cost of college wasn't nearly so bad then as it is now, but I still don't think of a clerk job paying enough to support going to school on top of normal life expenses. Maybe you had advanced from being a clerk before you went to college? Nonetheless, I complement you on your work ethic if it is the case that you went to school while holding down a 40 hour a week job. I did that for a while and part-time college is a painfully slow, drawn-out process. Full time college while working full time turns you into a zombie pretty quickly.

I'm not trying to take anything away from you. By all indications you have played the hand you were dealt very well. But I think you have to admit it was not a suck hand. Though you may not be willing to believe it, it is actually a pretty decent sized slice of the population that has had to play a suck hand.
 
Irvrobinson

Irvrobinson

Audioholic Spartan
Import value is generally based on what's called actual transaction value. Possibly what the maufacturer sells to itself (via a US based arm as importer) before reselling to distributors let alone retailers. In any case think I think your calculations for value are on the high side. I never did clearances for consumer audio gear and was surprised when I just looked up the tariff on AVRs and it was already duty free for most countries. What a consumer friendly tariff (considering there is virtually no domestic production to protect but certainly isn't encouraging it on the other hand)! Before the 25% duty there are also what are called user fees. The Merchandise Processing Fee (MPF) is collected on all imports, seems currently .3464% per entry with a maximum of nearly $500 per entry (so large quantitiy importations becomes a smaller percentage of value...). Ocean arrivals incur another user fee called the Harbor Maintenance Fee (HMF) of .125% which I don't think they've capped with a maximum like the MPF.
I was purposely estimating on the high side so as not to bias my argument against ShadyJ's case. Thanks for the rest of your expert information.
 
Johnny2Bad

Johnny2Bad

Audioholic Chief
Just went to do a re-order at Digi-Key, component prices have gone up ...

Digi-Key BOM 23102018.jpg
 
Johnny2Bad

Johnny2Bad

Audioholic Chief
Wait you mean to tell me there will be electronics unaffected by the tariffs?!
I am not positive that being assembled in some country other than the PRC will escape tariffs, especially from a low wage nation like Vietnam. Country of Origin rules dictate that at least 51% of the value added originates in that country. Since with US (or Canada) made electronics, that is obtainable via wages and certain components like enclosures which might be made locally, but coming from Vietnam or similar, it would be difficult to generate that amount versus the parts it's assembled from themselves, so it may still be considered a PRC product.

Japan would presumably be different, but only the top of the line units in the catalog are made in Japan by any of the major Japanese brands. Everything mere mortals might be shopping for is made elsewhere, often the PRC.
 
Johnny2Bad

Johnny2Bad

Audioholic Chief
I seem to recall some Investment Banks going belly-up, and some Insurance companies as well. ING was forced to sell their Canadian operations to generate cash (sold to CIBC) and shut down entirely in the US at the same time, so it traversed borders.

But I want to address why Mortgage Companies and consumer Banks could not be allowed to fail. You have to start with how banking works. I will try to keep it brief, but it's complex.

Banks reconcile deposits, loans, and withdrawls with the Central Bank every night ... in the case of the US, the central bank is the Federal Reserve. The role of the Federal Reserve is to insure the economy has enough money to function, expand at a reasonable rate, but not too fast as that causes inflation. They do this by manipulating certain aspects of Banking.

One aspect of banking they regulate is the amount of deposits required to correspond with the amount of loans they may grant. These days the figure in most countries is around 10%, give or take a few % depending on the economic conditions and the goals to either restrict or expand the money supply ... all the money available in the economy to generate wealth and promote business.

What that means is a bank must have X dollars on deposit before they can loan Y dollars. With a 10% requirement (for example) that means for every $1 million on deposit, they can loan $9 million dollars to business and the public, for a total of $10 million.

When a bank makes a loan, that money is created "out of thin air" at the moment the loan is made. The bank does not have the $9 million, it only has $1 million, but has the ability to loan $9 million.

The moment a bank deposits a loan into an account, or writes a check, that money exists. Prior to the loan, it didn't exist.

The borrower's ability to repay is the real currency of banking. This is fundamental to understanding how banking works.

Overnight, but after the fact of a loan being created, the Federal Reserve then loans the bank the money at the prescribed rate (usually set every week) to reconcile the books. This is sometimes what is meant by the idea that the government can "just print money".*

When depositors remove money from a bank, it has to reduce the loans it has in it's portfolio. Generally this is done via loans to businesses which are often "Demand Loans". A Demand Loan is one the bank can call in at any time.

So, banks will call in loans, demanding the full amount be repaid immediately. This causes businesses to contract, layoff employees, sell assets (and in a recession, at a loss as most buyers are also short of cash).

If this is allowed to continue unabated, it will make the recession more severe and more difficult to recover from. So Government will step in and support Banks in order to minimize the effect throughout the economy. Broadly speaking, they don't have a real choice here, as failure to act will severely cripple the economy as a whole, and lead to greater job losses and increased business bankruptcy.

Similarly with Mortgage Lenders, some forms of mortgage can be called in, if not immediately, then on an annual anniversary date. Panic selling depresses the home resale market.

There is one final aspect to this and that is how a dollar generated by a loan is spent. The old Economics Textbooks said that every dollar is spent repeatedly over a year, generating $7 in wealth for every $1 generated by a loan. When you get a loan, you buy something, that money goes to a second party, if they deposit that money in their bank account, the second bank can now lend it's $9 for ever dollar deposited, that money is spent, and so on. Not all of it is available to be re-used (so to speak) every time, but most of it is, and that results in a net $7 increase in the money supply.

Today, with more electronic transactions available to everyone, business and consumer alike, that ratio may be even higher than in the past.

So, there is a natural aversion to "bail outs of banks" by anyone who pays taxes, since that is where the money comes from (some day ... the US Government operates on future tax revenue, not current, to a large extent). But the cost of not doing so is greater and if left un-addressed, layoffs and bankruptcies would be greater and would touch every citizen versus just "some".

With regard to Investment Banks ... the "Wall Street bailouts" the argument is a little weaker, but only a little. Those entities, if allowed to fail, would take with them the majority of the nation's pension funds, affecting the retirement plans of workers in the nation.

With regard to the Automakers, GM, Ford and Chrysler were all solvent with adequate cash flow, but the banking crisis reduced the ability of banks to lend money to new car buyers. That affected cash flow significantly, making the automakers in danger of insolvency. Some say Ford didn't need help because they were well run, and GM and Chrysler were not. That isn't actually true.

Ford, due to collosal mismangement earlier in the decade**, had already sold off most of it's subsidiaries (Jaguar, etc) and secured high interest rate loans prior to the crisis. So they had money to keep operating. GM and Chrysler didn't need to restructure, but when the banking crisis unfolded, banks could not lend them any money, as they simply didn't have the assets to support new loans. GM actually did go bankrupt ... your "old" GM shares make nice wallpaper today. Both GM and Chrysler paid off their loans with high interest (up to around 20%) and the US Government made money on the deal (as did the Government of Canada and the Province of Ontario, who also lent money to the two).

* Some governments, at times of financial crisis, do resort to "Printing money", typically by offering it to banks at a negative interest rate. Not surprisingly, this is readily accepted, but as the economy as a whole can't produce more overnight, it results in runaway inflation (eg Zimbabwe, venezuela).

** Ford lost $US 12.7 Billion in 2006, an average of just under $2000 for every vehicle sold.
 
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KEW

KEW

Audioholic Overlord
@Johnny2Bad ,
Thanks for the specifics!
Can I assume the tariffs with our northern enemies from "The Peoples Socialist Republic of Canada" :rolleyes: will not effect electronics?
Funk, Anthem, Paradigm, PSB, etc.
 
lovinthehd

lovinthehd

Audioholic Jedi
I am not positive that being assembled in some country other than the PRC will escape tariffs, especially from a low wage nation like Vietnam. Country of Origin rules dictate that at least 51% of the value added originates in that country. Since with US (or Canada) made electronics, that is obtainable via wages and certain components like enclosures which might be made locally, but coming from Vietnam or similar, it would be difficult to generate that amount versus the parts it's assembled from themselves, so it may still be considered a PRC product.

Japan would presumably be different, but only the top of the line units in the catalog are made in Japan by any of the major Japanese brands. Everything mere mortals might be shopping for is made elsewhere, often the PRC.
As far as I've read the punitive tariffs are only for PRC products (maybe Canada too, due the two "pretty" boys not getting along :) ). As far as origin rules for duty assessment purposes, in the case of products of multiple countries of origin doesn't always mean one is going to necessarily be 51% altho I have no idea what the content breakdown would be for the D&M products made in Vietnam or Japan, probably a good chunk is of PRC origin due the nature of component sourcing, but I've handled various electronics of sometimes 5 and 6 different significant origins.
 
KEW

KEW

Audioholic Overlord
I seem to recall some Investment Banks going belly-up, and some Insurance companies as well. ING was forced to sell their Canadian operations to generate cash (sold to CIBC) and shut down entirely in the US at the same time, so it traversed borders.

But I want to address why Mortgage Companies and consumer Banks could not be allowed to fail. You have to start with how banking works. I will try to keep it brief, but it's complex.

Banks reconcile deposits, loans, and withdrawls with the Central Bank every night ... in the case of the US, the central bank is the Federal Reserve. The role of the Federal Reserve is to insure the economy has enough money to function, expand at a reasonable rate, but not too fast as that causes inflation. They do this by manipulating certain aspects of Banking.

One aspect of banking they regulate is the amount of deposits required to correspond with the amount of loans they may grant. These days the figure in most countries is around 10%, give or take a few % depending on the economic conditions and the goals to either restrict or expand the money supply ... all the money available in the economy to generate wealth and promote business.

What that means is a bank must have X dollars on deposit before they can loan Y dollars. With a 10% requirement (for example) that means for every $1 million on deposit, they can loan $9 million dollars to business and the public, for a total of $10 million.

When a bank makes a loan, that money is created "out of thin air" at the moment the loan is made. The bank does not have the $9 million, it only has $1 million, but has the ability to loan $9 million.

The moment a bank deposits a loan into an account, or writes a check, that money exists. Prior to the loan, it didn't exist.

The borrower's ability to repay is the real currency of banking. This is fundamental to understanding how banking works.

When depositors remove money from a bank, it has to reduce the loans it has in it's portfolio. Generally this is done via loans to businesses which are often "Demand Loans". A Demand Loan is one the bank can call in at any time.

So, banks will call in loans, demanding the full amount be repaid immediately. This causes businesses to contract, layoff employees, sell assets (and in a recession, at a loss as most buyers are also short of cash).

If this is allowed to continue unabated, it will make the recession more severe and more difficult to recover from. So Government will step in and support Banks in order to minimize the effect throughout the economy. Broadly speaking, they don't have a real choice here, as failure to act will severely cripple the economy as a whole, and lead to greater job losses and increased business bankruptcy.

Similarly with Mortgage Lenders, some forms of mortgage can be called in, if not immediately, then on an annual anniversary date. Panic selling depresses the home resale market.

There is one final aspect to this and that is how a dollar generated by a loan is spent. The old Economics Textbooks said that every dollar is spent repeatedly over a year, generating $7 in wealth for every $1 generated by a loan. When you get a loan, you buy something, that money goes to a second party, if they deposit that money in their bank account, the second bank can now lend it's $9 for ever dollar deposited, that money is spent, and so on. Not all of it is available to be re-used (so to speak) every time, but most of it is, and that results in a net $7 increase in the money supply.

Today, with more electronic transactions available to everyone, business and consumer alike, that ratio may be even higher than in the past.

So, there is a natural aversion to "bail outs of banks" by anyone who pays taxes, since that is where the money comes from (some day ... the US Government operates on future tax revenue, not current, to a large extent). But the cost of not doing so is greater and if left un-addressed, layoffs and bankruptcies would be greater and would touch every citizen versus just "some".
Bailing out the banks was definitely the right decision! (but thanks for your post, as it gave me a more detailed/comprehensive perspective)
However, there are plenty of people who were responsible for the depression who, after all was said and done, profited from it. I would like to think they felt some of the pain of the many who were hurt, but I know a large percent do not give that much thought. It would have been nice if there were fines for individuals while the institutions were not allowed to fail.
I know I am being idealistic and it would be a real cluster to determine who to hold accountable and how much; but I have to wonder if an equivalent opportunity presented itself today, would they do anything different?
 
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Forsooth

Forsooth

Audioholic
...So, there is a natural aversion to "bail outs of banks" by anyone who pays taxes, since that is where the money comes from (some day ... the US Government operates on future tax revenue, not current, to a large extent). But the cost of not doing so is greater and if left un-addressed, layoffs and bankruptcies would be greater and would touch every citizen versus just "some".
It would seem that, in all this financial scaffolding, there should be some requirement for lending agencies to use due diligence when making loans and to operate within prescribed ethical bounds. Clearly, many mortgage lenders did not do this.

If banks, etc., made solid loans, they should be able to weather an economic downturn. OTOH, if unethical practices were used to swing questionable mortgages and other loans, then yes, the businesses should be allowed to fail. Unmercifully.

I well remember the advertisements, "Got a credit problem? Don't let that stop you! Call this number and we WILL get you approved!!"
 
Forsooth

Forsooth

Audioholic
@Johnny2Bad ,
Thanks for the specifics!
Can I assume the tariffs with our northern enemies from "The Peoples Socialist Republic of Canada" :rolleyes: will not effect electronics?
Funk, Anthem, Paradigm, PSB, etc.
See post 228...Yes, maybe. Canada's Bryston is going up "due to tariffs."
 
WineOfTheVeins

WineOfTheVeins

Audioholic
Like others have said; the trade war is a joke. He thinks he can bully everyone and they will just bend over and accept it. Think the businesses are going to eat the increased cost of goods due to these BS tariffs? Not a f-----g chance, it gets passed on to the consumer. Many people are stretched so damn thin as it is, a few quarters and some lint in their pockets, yet the government wants to turn them upside down and shake the change out anyway. You cannot get blood from a stone. It's getting frustrating to be honest.

Up here, the biggest rage lately, other than this trade war shyte, is the fallacy that is the "carbon tax" which is leeching hundreds if not thousands more out of consumers and businesses who are already tighter than a guitar string, forcing companies to lay off, close down, make cuts, and for the people, losing their homes and everything else down the line.

V for Vendetta; anyone....?
 
Johnny2Bad

Johnny2Bad

Audioholic Chief
Bailing out the banks was definitely the right decision! (but thanks for your post, as it gave me a more detailed/comprehensive perspective)
However, there are plenty of people who were responsible for the depression who, after all was said and done, profited from it. I would like to think they felt some of the pain of the many who were hurt, but I know a large percent do not give that much thought. It would have been nice if there were fines for individuals while the institutions were not allowed to fail.
I know I am being idealist and it would be a real cluster to determine who to hold accountable and how much; but I have to wonder if an equivalent opportunity presented itself today, would they do anything different?
Yes, there will always be people who are able to profit from a crisis, or exploit weaknesses in hastily configured legislation.
 
S

shadyJ

Speaker of the House
Staff member
It would seem that, in all this financial scaffolding, there should be some requirement for lending agencies to use due diligence when making loans and to operate within prescribed ethical bounds. Clearly, many mortgage lenders did not do this.

If banks, etc., made solid loans, they should be able to weather an economic downturn. OTOH, if unethical practices were used to swing questionable mortgages and other loans, then yes, the businesses should be allowed to fail. Unmercifully.
Are you suggesting banking should be governed by *gasp* regulations? Are you some kind of commie?
 
Forsooth

Forsooth

Audioholic
Are you suggesting banking should be governed by *gasp* regulations? Are you some kind of commie?
Quite the opposite. Get much more of the gomment out of the financial latticework.
 
Johnny2Bad

Johnny2Bad

Audioholic Chief
It would seem that, in all this financial scaffolding, there should be some requirement for lending agencies to use due diligence when making loans and to operate within prescribed ethical bounds. Clearly, many mortgage lenders did not do this.

If banks, etc., made solid loans, they should be able to weather an economic downturn. OTOH, if unethical practices were used to swing questionable mortgages and other loans, then yes, the businesses should be allowed to fail. Unmercifully.

I well remember the advertisements, "Got a credit problem? Don't let that stop you! Call this number and we WILL get you approved!!"
The US mortgage lenders in the Sub-Prime market, who are the real villians in all this, certainly operated recklessly and without regard to others. But if you really want to look deep into the crisis of 08, it goes back to changes in the banking and investment regulations going back as far as Reagan, which allowed Derivatives to be created without any means to determine the actual risk. Fundamentally it's difficult to fault someone who just exploits the rules as they exist ... in many ways it's central to American business ... but it's unfortunate those rules existed in the first place.

See post 228...Yes, maybe. Canada's Bryston is going up "due to tariffs."
My post #265 is a BOM from Digikey Canada. I touched on it much earlier in this thread, but basically it comes down to the way component parts are distributed in North America. Almost all components go to the US first, which means a tariff is applied, before they are further distributed to Canada.
 
Johnny2Bad

Johnny2Bad

Audioholic Chief
It would seem that, in all this financial scaffolding, there should be some requirement for lending agencies to use due diligence when making loans and to operate within prescribed ethical bounds. Clearly, many mortgage lenders did not do this.

If banks, etc., made solid loans, they should be able to weather an economic downturn. OTOH, if unethical practices were used to swing questionable mortgages and other loans, then yes, the businesses should be allowed to fail. Unmercifully.

I well remember the advertisements, "Got a credit problem? Don't let that stop you! Call this number and we WILL get you approved!!"
Banks don't last long if their borrowers don't repay loans. If you default on a loan, it affects the cash requirement the banks must have (that loan must be paid out of the reserve, not the loan portfolio),which means they will have to call in Demand Loans to make up the shortfall.

The problem with borrowers is it's future behaviour the bank has to guess about. Many people with 750+ credit scores default on loans if a personal financial crisis, such as illness, befalls them. They do their due diligence but it can only go so far. Shite happens.

Where financial crisis gets in the way is it can cause a significant portion of your well qualified borrowers to experience sudden financial difficulty. Investing is like gambling ... never have more in the market than you can afford to lose, but like gambling, many people ignore that when the economy is doing well. Then the hammer drops.

"Lenders of Last Resort" ... those who loan to people with poor credit scores ... make tons of money via high interest rates. They are probably more solvernt than a careful lending charter bank.

I would just add that many of the kinds of mortgages that were offered by the Sub-Prime lenders, and even the more established "safe practice" lenders in the US would be illegal in Canada. Banks here must confirm all income used to justify a mortgage, and if the borrower is found to have provided false information, as well as the possibility of a Criminal Offense* (fraud) charge being brought against the borrower, the mortgage lender or bank also pays a monetary penalty. Which might be seen as Communist in some business circles ;-)

* There are no misdemeanor fraud charges in Canada, and the US considers all Criminal Code convictions as "equivalent to felony", which will probably prevent you from visiting the USA, or even flying over US territory en route to a third nation.
 
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Forsooth

Forsooth

Audioholic
Like others have said; the trade war is a joke. He thinks he can bully everyone and they will just bend over and accept it. Think the businesses are going to eat the increased cost of goods due to these BS tariffs? Not a f-----g chance, it gets passed on to the consumer. Many people are stretched so damn thin as it is, a few quarters and some lint in their pockets, yet the government wants to turn them upside down and shake the change out anyway. You cannot get blood from a stone. It's getting frustrating to be honest...
 
KEW

KEW

Audioholic Overlord
So, has the escalation (China vs US) ended? Are the tariffs implemented on everything or do we have more on the way?
Is the White house still denying this is a trade war?
It would seem that, in all this financial scaffolding, there should be some requirement for lending agencies to use due diligence when making loans and to operate within prescribed ethical bounds. Clearly, many mortgage lenders did not do this.

If banks, etc., made solid loans, they should be able to weather an economic downturn. OTOH, if unethical practices were used to swing questionable mortgages and other loans, then yes, the businesses should be allowed to fail. Unmercifully.

I well remember the advertisements, "Got a credit problem? Don't let that stop you! Call this number and we WILL get you approved!!"
When I bought my first home, the bank was like my consultant and gave me good honest advice on what was a responsible mortgage to take on.
About 10 years later when I went for pre-approval, things had changed! I don't remember the maximum amount they were willing to approve, but I do remember it was insane and twice what I considered reasonable based on my experience with my first home.
That reflects a shift in the mortgage industry, for the second home, they were outright encouraging me to take on a level of debt which left little room for even a minor emergency.
That is a problem with capitalism! It is so great in so many ways, but it also does not recognize any benefit from doing what is right. As a kid after WW2, people in my home town were very much unified in building and maintaining a good community/society. People charged a "fair price for a job well done".
Today, the rules of business consider this foolish behavior and say you should charge the maximum the market will bear!
 
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