Have LCD TV Prices Hit Rock Bottom?

[admin]

If you've been holding off on that new flat panel LCD television, you may want to get it in gear. The prices of LCD panels have apparently bottomed out, causing manufacturers of 32-inch and under displays to consider raising prices for the first time since the technology was introduced to consumers. Wholesale prices on LCD panels reached their lowest point this year and actually jumped back up a bit, with price increases in April, and a larger $5-10 price increase in May.


Discuss "Have LCD TV Prices Hit Rock Bottom?" here. Read the article.

[j_garcia]

All that means is the oversupply condition that existed before (for over 1 year) has finally dried up, as anticipated. That means they will start buying equipment and ramping up factories and prices will again be lower by X-mas. I formerly worked in the LCD equipment industry and that market is completely flat at the moment. That means if companies are not buying equipment, they don't have a shortage of product...

[Mort Corey]

The relative value of the US dollar has decreased as well so it's hard to say if the price will increase or decrease to a very large extent. If one waits for the latest and greatest in features or lowest possible price then they'll probably never purchase anything.......see computers. I bought a plasma display about 3 1/2 years ago and cringe a little when I see todays prices....BUT...I've also had 3 1/2 years of enjoyment so in the end I came out ahead.

Mort

[birdonthebeach]

The relative value of the US dollar has decreased as well so it's hard to say if the price will increase or decrease to a very large extent. If one waits for the latest and greatest in features or lowest possible price then they'll probably never purchase anything.......see computers. I bought a plasma display about 3 1/2 years ago and cringe a little when I see todays prices....BUT...I've also had 3 1/2 years of enjoyment so in the end I came out ahead.

Mort

That's a good point, Mort. I tell people who ask me about buying a flat screen not to worry about if prices will be lower next year. I ask them, do you want to have a TV now, or wait a year?

[MDS]

Prices are getting to a point where they now meet my self-imposed limit of $3K for a TV but I don't consider them to be rock bottom just yet. When you can buy a 50" LCD for $1,000 that would be my idea of rock bottom but who wants to wait forever?

Salvation Army is picking up my CRT on Friday so I'll be pulling the trigger in the next few weeks.

[Clint DeBoer]

When you can buy a 50" LCD for $1,000 that would be my idea of rock bottom

Why not $100?

[angstadt530]

The article says that displays 32" and under are the ones that might increase in price. Does this mean that we can still expect prices on displays >32" to continue decreasing?

[AVRat]

Don't count on it. The new models will be coming out shortly, but their initial pricing will probably be lower than when the current models debuted last year.

[kleinwl]

That's a good point, Mort. I tell people who ask me about buying a flat screen not to worry about if prices will be lower next year. I ask them, do you want to have a TV now, or wait a year?

I would say conversly, why buy something that is not of great use now to you if you can wait? In the computer industry, there is not much point in purchasing more power than you need (ie: future proofing), since prices fall so rapidly and power increases two fold every year. Even in Highly computationaly demanding applications, it is some times less expensive to buy a new workstation every year, to keep up with needs, rather than investing in a server to try to meet needs five years from now. This is enhanced by the fact that deploying a workstation can be a matter of weeks, while a server can take months to be fully usable.

In the case of flat panels, if you don't see the need for a tv right now, why not wait? So what is panel prices go up $100? The electronics, scalers, etc are falling just as rapidly. Also, the panel price increase is only a short term thing. Manufacturing capacity is increasing, the Flat panel volume (worldwide) is not expected to peak until 2011 or later. So even if the US market becomes saturated, Europe, Asia, etc will be rapidly adopting units, keeping costs low. In fact, a few Tier I Japanese manufactures are expected to start assembling units in Mexico, which will significantly reduce logistical and labor costs... which will translate into lower cost units in the stores. In addition, R&D is continuing at a rapid pace, so color quality, brightness, etc will continue to improve.

Nope, the only reason you should by a flat panel, at any time, is if YOU want it. Otherwise, fence sitting just continues to give you better and better options and lower prices.

Which all means, by the way, that I disagree that LCDs have (or ever will have) reached the rock bottom prices.

[kleinwl]

Why not $100?

Any arbitrary number can be used, if no one tries to analysis it.

I think that everyone needs to do a trade-off analysis of potential value verse cost. If a flat screen provides sufficient value to you now to outweigh its cost, then you should buy it... even if you expect it to fall 50% in the next year. IF the value of your time is worth more than the value of 50% cost reduction.

However, most people do look at the falling prices and say to themselves... well, if it is worth X to me now at Y price... then in a year it will be worth X+a (technology improvement) at Y-b (falling prices). However this totally discounts the opportunity cost of time. So, what people have to do is compare X-Y to ((X+a)-(Y+b))/((1+r)^n) where r is the discount rates... or in this case, the opportunity cost of your time.